Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 21:00 •
Estadio Alberto Grisales
Expected Goals
0.84 (league 1.17)
1.80 (league 0.80)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 17.2% | 22.8% | 58.9% |
best score tips
0 - 1
12.8%
0 - 2
11.5%
1 - 1
10.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Once Caldas | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Águilas Doradas | 0 | 7.1% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 6.0% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 2.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Once Caldas carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 75 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Águilas Doradas -13.7, Once Caldas +2.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Águilas Doradas
vs
Once Caldas
Elo gapOnce Caldas +75
Home / draw / away31% / 21% / 48%
Expected home share39%
Combined Elo3062
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3062
Elo home share
39%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Águilas Doradas | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1475.8 | 1586.2 |
| Form Elo | 1465.3 | 1591.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1483.8 | 1534.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1461.9 | 1532.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1465.9 | 1645.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -13.7 | +2.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Águilas Doradas last-5 Elo change: -13.7; Once Caldas last-5 Elo change: +2.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Águilas Doradas | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 40% |
| Attack | 33% | 42% |
| Defense | 17% | 42% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
67%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Águilas Doradas | Once Caldas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 17 |
| Wins | 44% | 25% | 35% | 56% | 25% | 41% |
| Draws | 11% | 38% | 24% | 33% | 63% | 47% |
| Loses | 44% | 38% | 41% | 11% | 13% | 12% |
Águilas DoradasDLWDWLWDLWLDWLWLL
Once CaldasWDDDDWLWWWWDLDDDW
League goals
| Metric | Águilas Doradas | Once Caldas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 6 | 16 | 19 | 9 | 28 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 12 | 10 | 22 | 13 | 7 | 20 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Águilas Doradas | Once Caldas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 76% | 94% | 82% |
| 1.5 | 18% | 35% | 41% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 12% | 18% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 12% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Águilas Doradas | Once Caldas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Águilas Doradas | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Águilas Doradas | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 4 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 0-1 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-1 | 1-4 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Águilas Doradas | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 41% | 59% |
| Poisson Distribution | 29% | 71% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 44.0% | 56.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.58 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.30 @ Betfair
Away2.90 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.10 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.75 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.83 @ Bet365
No2.00 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
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