Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 20:00 •
Estadio Municipal de Futbol de Monteria
Expected Goals
2.44 (league 1.17)
1.80 (league 0.80)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 48.5% | 19.2% | 27.5% |
best score tips
2 - 1
7.7%
2 - 2
6.9%
1 - 1
6.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Cucuta | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Jaguares | 0 | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 4.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 3.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Jaguares carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 20 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Jaguares -44.1, Cucuta +5.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Jaguares
vs
Cucuta
Elo gapJaguares +20
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3074
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3074
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Jaguares | Cucuta |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1529.4 | 1544.6 |
| Form Elo | 1483.5 | 1538 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1537 | 1506.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1515.1 | 1541.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1517.8 | 1494.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -44.1 | +5.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Jaguares last-5 Elo change: -44.1; Cucuta last-5 Elo change: +5.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Jaguares | Cucuta |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 53% |
| Attack | 58% | 33% |
| Defense | 17% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Jaguares | Cucuta | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 9 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| Wins | 44% | 0% | 22% | 33% | 0% | 17% |
| Draws | 11% | 22% | 17% | 33% | 44% | 39% |
| Loses | 44% | 78% | 61% | 33% | 56% | 44% |
JaguaresWLDWLWLLLLLLDLWLLD
CucutaLLDDLLDWLLLDDWDWLD
League goals
| Metric | Jaguares | Cucuta | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 6 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 22 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 12 | 21 | 33 | 13 | 20 | 33 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Jaguares | Cucuta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 72% | 83% | 78% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 22% | 61% | 39% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 28% | 6% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Jaguares | Cucuta | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Jaguares | Cucuta |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Jaguares | Cucuta |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 6 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | — | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 5-0 | 1-3 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Jaguares | Cucuta |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 38% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 38% | 63% |
| Total | 43.0% | 57.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.35 @ Betano
Draw3.35 @ Unibet
Away3.20 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.01 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.80 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.75 @ 10Bet
No2.00 @ 10Bet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…