Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 20:00 •
Estadio Palogrande
Expected Goals
2.32 (league 1.18)
2.81 (league 0.80)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 29.9% | 17.6% | 43.0% |
best score tips
2 - 2
6.3%
2 - 3
5.9%
1 - 2
5.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Atletico Nacional | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Once Caldas | 0 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 1.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.0% | |
| 2 | 1.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.3% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Once Caldas +2.9, Atletico Nacional +28.9.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Once Caldas
vs
Atletico Nacional
Elo gapAtletico Nacional +12
Home / draw / away34% / 29% / 37%
Expected home share48%
Combined Elo3219.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3219.1
Elo home share
48%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Once Caldas | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1586.2 | 1632.9 |
| Form Elo | 1591.4 | 1650.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1548.1 | 1544.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1532.7 | 1653.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1645.5 | 1640.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +2.9 | +28.9 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Once Caldas last-5 Elo change: +2.9; Atletico Nacional last-5 Elo change: +28.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Once Caldas | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 87% |
| Attack | 42% | 75% |
| Defense | 42% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Once Caldas | Atletico Nacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 17 |
| Wins | 56% | 25% | 41% | 89% | 63% | 76% |
| Draws | 33% | 63% | 47% | 11% | 0% | 6% |
| Loses | 11% | 13% | 12% | 0% | 38% | 18% |
Once CaldasWDDDDWLWWWWDLDDDW
Atletico NacionalWWWLWWLWWWLWWDWWW
League goals
| Metric | Once Caldas | Atletico Nacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 9 | 28 | 22 | 13 | 35 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| GA total | 13 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 13 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Once Caldas | Atletico Nacional | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 94% | 82% | 76% | 59% |
| 1.5 | 41% | 24% | 76% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 6% | 35% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 6% | 18% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Once Caldas | Atletico Nacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Once Caldas | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Once Caldas | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 2-1 | — | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Once Caldas | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 32% | 68% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 42% | 58% |
| H2h | 7% | 93% |
| Goals | 20% | 80% |
| Total | 28.8% | 71.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…