Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 07:30 •
Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium
Expected Goals
1.40 (league 1.31)
1.69 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 31.6% | 23.6% | 43.7% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.8%
1 - 2
9.1%
0 - 1
7.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Daejeon Citizen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ulsan Hyundai FC | 0 | 4.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 6.4% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 4.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Ulsan Hyundai FC +9.1, Daejeon Citizen -40.0.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Ulsan Hyundai FC
vs
Daejeon Citizen
Elo gapDaejeon Citizen +8
Home / draw / away35% / 29% / 36%
Expected home share49%
Combined Elo3049.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3049.5
Elo home share
49%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Ulsan Hyundai FC | Daejeon Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1503.4 | 1546.1 |
| Form Elo | 1524.8 | 1527.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1509.1 | 1544.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1480.8 | 1520.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1523.3 | 1555.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.1 | -40.0 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Ulsan Hyundai FC last-5 Elo change: +9.1; Daejeon Citizen last-5 Elo change: -40.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ulsan Hyundai FC | Daejeon Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 20% |
| Attack | 90% | 10% |
| Defense | 10% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ulsan Hyundai FC | Daejeon Citizen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Wins | 50% | 60% | 56% | 0% | 50% | 22% |
| Draws | 25% | 20% | 22% | 40% | 25% | 33% |
| Loses | 25% | 20% | 22% | 60% | 25% | 44% |
Ulsan Hyundai FCWWWDLWLWD
Daejeon CitizenDDDWLLLWL
League goals
| Metric | Ulsan Hyundai FC | Daejeon Citizen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 6 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ulsan Hyundai FC | Daejeon Citizen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 78% | 56% | 89% |
| 1.5 | 56% | 22% | 11% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 11% | 11% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 11% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ulsan Hyundai FC | Daejeon Citizen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ulsan Hyundai FC | Daejeon Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Total | 3 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ulsan Hyundai FC | Daejeon Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-2 | — | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ulsan Hyundai FC | Daejeon Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 70% | 30% |
| Att | 90% | 10% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 63% | 38% |
| Total | 61.0% | 39.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.12 @ 1xBet
Draw3.50 @ Dafabet
Away3.60 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.00 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.83 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.80 @ Bet365
No2.00 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
Loading standings…