Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 12:00 •
Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium
Expected Goals
1.89 (league 1.38)
0.64 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 65.8% | 21.0% | 11.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
15.0%
2 - 0
14.2%
1 - 1
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Merani Martvili | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Samtredia | 0 | 8.0% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.0% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.2% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.9% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Samtredia carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 25 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Samtredia -12.9, Merani Martvili -1.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Samtredia
vs
Merani Martvili
Elo gapSamtredia +25
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo3003
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3003
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Samtredia | Merani Martvili |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1496.4 | 1506.6 |
| Form Elo | 1483 | 1509.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1508.4 | 1491.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1499.5 | 1494.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1522.4 | 1434.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -12.9 | -1.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Samtredia last-5 Elo change: -12.9; Merani Martvili last-5 Elo change: -1.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Samtredia | Merani Martvili |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 53% |
| Attack | 38% | 46% |
| Defense | 46% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
77%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Samtredia | Merani Martvili | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Wins | 33% | 20% | 25% | 60% | 0% | 38% |
| Draws | 33% | 0% | 13% | 20% | 67% | 38% |
| Loses | 33% | 80% | 63% | 20% | 33% | 25% |
SamtrediaLDLWLLLW
Merani MartviliWDLDWLDW
League goals
| Metric | Samtredia | Merani Martvili | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 3 | 11 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Samtredia | Merani Martvili | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 63% | 88% | 88% | 63% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 63% | 38% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 25% | 0% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Samtredia | Merani Martvili | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Samtredia | Merani Martvili |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Samtredia | Merani Martvili |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-3 | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-0 | 2-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Samtredia | Merani Martvili |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 43% | 57% |
| Att | 45% | 55% |
| Def | 53% | 47% |
| Poisson Distribution | 69% | 31% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 53.0% | 47.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…