Sat, May 2 2026 • 17:00 •
Tsentraluri Stadioni
Expected Goals
1.69 (league 1.38)
0.73 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 59.8% | 23.7% | 15.7% |
best score tips
1 - 0
15.1%
2 - 0
12.8%
1 - 1
10.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Telavi | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Aragvi Dusheti | 0 | 8.9% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.1% | 10.9% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.8% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.2% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Aragvi Dusheti carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 143 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Aragvi Dusheti -17.6, Telavi +29.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Aragvi Dusheti
vs
Telavi
Elo gapAragvi Dusheti +143
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share69%
Combined Elo3053.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3053.7
Elo home share
69%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Aragvi Dusheti | Telavi |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1580.7 | 1473 |
| Form Elo | 1564 | 1486.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1551.6 | 1468.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1699.4 | 1426 |
| Defense Elo | 1547.7 | 1474.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.6 | +29.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Aragvi Dusheti last-5 Elo change: -17.6; Telavi last-5 Elo change: +29.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Aragvi Dusheti | Telavi |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 53% |
| Attack | 24% | 35% |
| Defense | 65% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Aragvi Dusheti | Telavi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Wins | 75% | 0% | 33% | 40% | 25% | 33% |
| Draws | 0% | 40% | 22% | 60% | 25% | 44% |
| Loses | 25% | 60% | 44% | 0% | 50% | 22% |
Aragvi DushetiWLWLLLDWD
TelaviDWDLWWDDL
League goals
| Metric | Aragvi Dusheti | Telavi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 4 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Aragvi Dusheti | Telavi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 89% | 78% | 56% |
| 1.5 | 22% | 22% | 11% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 11% | 0% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Aragvi Dusheti | Telavi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Aragvi Dusheti | Telavi |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Aragvi Dusheti | Telavi |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | — | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-1 | — | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Aragvi Dusheti | Telavi |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 62% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 64% | 36% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 46.8% | 53.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…