Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 14:00 •
Vitali Daraselia Academy
Expected Goals
0.56 (league 1.80)
1.21 (league 1.33)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 17.0% | 30.7% | 52.1% |
best score tips
0 - 1
20.7%
0 - 0
17.1%
0 - 2
12.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Guria | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Dinamo Tbilisi II | 0 | 17.0% | 20.7% | 12.6% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 11.5% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 2.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Guria carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 75 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Dinamo Tbilisi II -1.2, Guria +2.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Dinamo Tbilisi II
vs
Guria
Elo gapGuria +75
Home / draw / away31% / 22% / 47%
Expected home share39%
Combined Elo2926.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2926.1
Elo home share
39%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Dinamo Tbilisi II | Guria |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1408.3 | 1517.8 |
| Form Elo | 1413 | 1523.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1452.3 | 1510.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1419.8 | 1556.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1331.1 | 1541 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -1.2 | +2.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Dinamo Tbilisi II last-5 Elo change: -1.2; Guria last-5 Elo change: +2.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Dinamo Tbilisi II | Guria |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 53% |
| Attack | 14% | 45% |
| Defense | 77% | 91% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Dinamo Tbilisi II | Guria | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Wins | 67% | 0% | 33% | 33% | 67% | 50% |
| Draws | 0% | 67% | 33% | 67% | 0% | 33% |
| Loses | 33% | 33% | 33% | 0% | 33% | 17% |
Dinamo Tbilisi IIWDDLLW
GuriaWWDWDL
League goals
| Metric | Dinamo Tbilisi II | Guria | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| GA total | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Dinamo Tbilisi II | Guria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 50% | 67% | 67% | 33% |
| 1.5 | 17% | 17% | 50% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 17% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Dinamo Tbilisi II | Guria | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Dinamo Tbilisi II | Guria |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Dinamo Tbilisi II | Guria |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | — | 7-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 2-0 | — | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Dinamo Tbilisi II | Guria |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 62% |
| Att | 23% | 77% |
| Def | 29% | 71% |
| Poisson Distribution | 32% | 68% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 20% | 80% |
| Total | 28.4% | 71.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…