Expected Goals
2.94 (league 1.80)
0.45 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 79.2% | 9.6% | 3.4% |
best score tips
2 - 0
14.5%
3 - 0
14.2%
4 - 0
10.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Margveti 2006 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Guria | 0 | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.5% | 6.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 14.2% | 6.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 10.5% | 4.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 6.1% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Guria carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 145 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Guria +0.8, Margveti 2006 +6.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Guria
vs
Margveti 2006
Elo gapGuria +145
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share70%
Combined Elo2943.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2943.6
Elo home share
70%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Guria | Margveti 2006 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1527 | 1416.6 |
| Form Elo | 1540.3 | 1413.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1504.4 | 1441.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1558.2 | 1444.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1542.5 | 1264.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +0.8 | +6.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Guria last-5 Elo change: +0.8; Margveti 2006 last-5 Elo change: +6.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Guria | Margveti 2006 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Attack | 33% | 47% |
| Defense | 80% | 40% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
83%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Guria | Margveti 2006 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Wins | 33% | 75% | 57% | 33% | 25% | 29% |
| Draws | 67% | 0% | 29% | 33% | 0% | 14% |
| Loses | 0% | 25% | 14% | 33% | 75% | 57% |
GuriaWWDWDLW
Margveti 2006LLLDWWL
League goals
| Metric | Guria | Margveti 2006 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 9 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 14 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Guria | Margveti 2006 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 43% | 86% | 86% |
| 1.5 | 57% | 14% | 14% | 57% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 0% | 14% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 0% | 0% | 14% |
| 4.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Guria | Margveti 2006 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Guria | Margveti 2006 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Guria | Margveti 2006 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-0 | 1-4 | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-1 | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Guria | Margveti 2006 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 75% | 25% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 56.7% | 43.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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