Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 12:00 •
Paata Tatarishvili Stadioni
Expected Goals
0.36 (league 1.80)
0.79 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 15.7% | 41.4% | 42.9% |
best score tips
0 - 0
31.7%
0 - 1
25.0%
1 - 0
11.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Gardabani | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Kolkheti Khobi | 0 | 31.7% | 25.0% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.5% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Kolkheti Khobi carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 29 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Kolkheti Khobi -11.1, Gardabani +9.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Kolkheti Khobi
vs
Gardabani
Elo gapKolkheti Khobi +29
Home / draw / away40% / 27% / 33%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo2838.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2838.7
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Kolkheti Khobi | Gardabani |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1416.5 | 1422.2 |
| Form Elo | 1401.2 | 1427.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1489.1 | 1453.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1465.9 | 1442.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1370.2 | 1340 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -11.1 | +9.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Kolkheti Khobi last-5 Elo change: -11.1; Gardabani last-5 Elo change: +9.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Kolkheti Khobi | Gardabani |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 47% |
| Attack | 33% | 47% |
| Defense | 33% | 60% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
61%
FT probability
2.5+
43%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
53%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Kolkheti Khobi | Gardabani | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Wins | 33% | 0% | 17% | 33% | 25% | 29% |
| Draws | 33% | 0% | 17% | 0% | 50% | 29% |
| Loses | 33% | 100% | 67% | 67% | 25% | 43% |
Kolkheti KhobiLLWLDL
GardabaniDLWLLDW
League goals
| Metric | Kolkheti Khobi | Gardabani | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 4 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Kolkheti Khobi | Gardabani | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 50% | 83% | 29% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 17% | 50% | 29% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 50% | 29% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 14% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Kolkheti Khobi | Gardabani | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Kolkheti Khobi | Gardabani |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Kolkheti Khobi | Gardabani |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | — | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Kolkheti Khobi | Gardabani |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36% | 64% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 38% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 32% | 68% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 70% | 30% |
| Total | 44.7% | 55.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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