NWSL Women
— USA
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 00:00 •
Shell Energy Stadium
Expected Goals
4.32 (league 1.21)
1.83 (league 1.07)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 52.6% | 10.0% | 9.8% |
best score tips
4 - 1
5.7%
3 - 1
5.2%
4 - 2
5.2%
Score & goals probability table
| North Carolina Courage W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Houston Dash W | 0 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 2.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 3.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 2.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Houston Dash W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 18 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Houston Dash W +23.2, North Carolina Courage W 0.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Houston Dash W
vs
North Carolina Courage W
Elo gapHouston Dash W +18
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3024.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3024.1
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Houston Dash W | North Carolina Courage W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1503.6 | 1520.5 |
| Form Elo | 1526.4 | 1520.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1493.9 | 1500.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1508.4 | 1545.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1467.9 | 1482.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +23.2 | 0.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Houston Dash W last-5 Elo change: +23.2; North Carolina Courage W last-5 Elo change: 0.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Houston Dash W | North Carolina Courage W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 75% | 42% |
| Attack | 90% | 50% |
| Defense | 50% | 40% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 2.3 | 5 | 1.3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1.3 | 6 | 1.5 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
56%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Houston Dash W | North Carolina Courage W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Wins | 100% | 50% | 75% | 33% | 0% | 25% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 100% | 50% |
| Loses | 0% | 50% | 25% | 33% | 0% | 25% |
Houston Dash WWWLW
North Carolina Courage WWDLD
League goals
| Metric | Houston Dash W | North Carolina Courage W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| GF avg | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Houston Dash W | North Carolina Courage W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 50% | 75% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Houston Dash W | North Carolina Courage W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Houston Dash W | North Carolina Courage W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Houston Dash W | North Carolina Courage W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-1 | 2-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-1 | 1-3 | — |
| Goals For | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Houston Dash W | North Carolina Courage W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 64% | 36% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 55% | 45% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 0% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 53.4% | 46.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.00 @ Betano
Draw3.25 @ Betfair
Away2.32 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.76 @ Marathonbet
No2.00 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.05 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.77 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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