Úrvalsdeild — Iceland
Thu, Apr 23 2026 • 17:00 • Thorsvollur
Not Started

Thor Akureyri

—

Fram Reykjavik

Expected Goals
2.11 (league 1.90) 6.31 (league 1.43)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
3.6% 4.6% 30.7%
best score tips
2 - 5
4.1%
1 - 5
3.9%
2 - 4
3.2%
Score & goals probability table
Fram Reykjavik
0 1 2 3 4 5
Thor Akureyri 0 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.8%
1 0.0% 0.3% 1.0% 2.0% 3.1% 3.9%
2 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% 2.1% 3.3% 4.2%
3 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 1.5% 2.4% 2.9%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 1.6%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

Thor Akureyri carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 114 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Thor Akureyri -3.2, Fram Reykjavik +11.5.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Thor Akureyri Elo 1608.9 · -3.2
vs
Fram Reykjavik Elo 1529.8 · +11.5
Elo gapThor Akureyri +114
Home / draw / away54% / 18% / 28%
Expected home share66%
Combined Elo3138.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3138.7
Elo home share 66%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric Thor Akureyri Fram Reykjavik
Overall Elo1608.91529.8
Form Elo15931560.8
Home / Away Elo1547.31486.3
Attack Elo1758.71666.7
Defense Elo1515.91485
Last 5 Elo change-3.2+11.5

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Thor Akureyri last-5 Elo change: -3.2; Fram Reykjavik last-5 Elo change: +11.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricThor AkureyriFram Reykjavik
Played22
Form50%67%
Attack33%50%
Defense50%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 26 | 3
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 34 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

83%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Thor Akureyri Fram Reykjavik
HATHAT
Played022202
Wins—50%50%50%—50%
Draws—0%0%50%—50%
Loses—50%50%0%—0%
Thor AkureyriWL
Fram ReykjavikDW

League goals

Metric Thor Akureyri Fram Reykjavik
HATHAT
GF total044606
GF avg0.02.02.03.00.03.0
GA total066404
GA avg0.03.03.02.00.02.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineThor AkureyriFram Reykjavik
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%100%100%100%
1.5100%50%100%50%
2.50%50%100%50%
3.50%50%0%0%
4.50%50%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricThor AkureyriFram Reykjavik
HATHAT
Clean sheets000000
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricThor AkureyriFram Reykjavik
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricThor AkureyriFram Reykjavik
Wins10
Draws01
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—1-23-1—
Biggest losses—5-2——
Goals For0230
Goals Against0530

Model comparison

MetricThor AkureyriFram Reykjavik
Form43%57%
Att40%60%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution0%0%
H2h0%100%
Goals19%81%
Total35.5%64.5%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.10 @ 10Bet
Draw4.27 @ Pinnacle
Away2.03 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.47 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.88 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.44 @ Bet365
No3.00 @ Betfair
📊

League standings

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