Úrvalsdeild
— Iceland
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 18:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.57 (league 1.91)
2.61 (league 1.44)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 21.6% | 18.0% | 54.9% |
best score tips
1 - 2
8.2%
1 - 3
7.1%
2 - 2
6.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Keflavik | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| KA Akureyri | 0 | 1.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 2.4% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | |
| 2 | 1.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Keflavik carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 19 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: KA Akureyri -16.9, Keflavik -24.6.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
KA Akureyri
vs
Keflavik
Elo gapKeflavik +19
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo3069
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3069
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | KA Akureyri | Keflavik |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1507.3 | 1561.7 |
| Form Elo | 1486.6 | 1527.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1488.8 | 1499.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1587.6 | 1752.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1440.7 | 1472.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -16.9 | -24.6 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. KA Akureyri last-5 Elo change: -16.9; Keflavik last-5 Elo change: -24.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | KA Akureyri | Keflavik |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 11% | 11% |
| Attack | 16% | 16% |
| Defense | 68% | 68% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
70%
FT probability
3.5+
50%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | KA Akureyri | Keflavik | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 0% | 100% | 33% | 100% | 0% | 33% |
| Loses | 100% | 0% | 67% | 0% | 100% | 67% |
KA AkureyriLLD
KeflavikLLD
League goals
| Metric | KA Akureyri | Keflavik | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| GA avg | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | KA Akureyri | Keflavik | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 100% | 67% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 0% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | KA Akureyri | Keflavik | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | KA Akureyri | Keflavik |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | KA Akureyri | Keflavik |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | — | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | — | — | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | KA Akureyri | Keflavik |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 44% | 56% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 54.2% | 45.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…