Úrvalsdeild
— Iceland
Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 19:15 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.36 (league 1.91)
2.08 (league 1.44)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 42.1% | 19.4% | 33.3% |
best score tips
2 - 2
7.1%
2 - 1
6.8%
1 - 2
6.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Valur Reykjavik | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Stjarnan | 0 | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 2.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 3.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 2.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Stjarnan carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 102 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Stjarnan +10.1, Valur Reykjavik +9.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Stjarnan
vs
Valur Reykjavik
Elo gapStjarnan +102
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share64%
Combined Elo3139.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3139.1
Elo home share
64%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Stjarnan | Valur Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1603.1 | 1536 |
| Form Elo | 1612 | 1557.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1539.5 | 1486 |
| Attack Elo | 1737.4 | 1687.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1455.6 | 1456.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +10.1 | +9.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Stjarnan last-5 Elo change: +10.1; Valur Reykjavik last-5 Elo change: +9.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Stjarnan | Valur Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 2 | 2 |
| Form | 100% | 50% |
| Attack | 50% | 25% |
| Defense | 67% | 75% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1.5 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
93%
FT probability
2.5+
65%
FT probability
3.5+
46%
FT probability
BTTS
91%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Stjarnan | Valur Reykjavik | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Wins | 100% | 100% | 100% | 50% | — | 50% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | — | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | — | 50% |
StjarnanWW
Valur ReykjavikLW
League goals
| Metric | Stjarnan | Valur Reykjavik | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| GF avg | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Stjarnan | Valur Reykjavik | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Stjarnan | Valur Reykjavik | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Stjarnan | Valur Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Stjarnan | Valur Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 2-3 | 2-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | — | 1-2 | — |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Stjarnan | Valur Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 0% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 48% | 52% |
| Total | 55.0% | 45.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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