Thu, Feb 19 2026 • 20:00 • Chorten Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.88 (league 1.64) 1.24 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
26.3% 29.1% 44.4%
best score tips
0 - 1
14.9%
1 - 1
13.1%
0 - 0
12.0%
Score & goals probability table
Fiorentina
0 1 2 3 4 5
Jagiellonia 0 12.0% 14.9% 9.2% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3%
1 10.6% 13.1% 8.1% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3%
2 4.7% 5.8% 3.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
3 1.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricJagielloniaFiorentina
Played55
Form40%40%
Attack33%50%
Defense67%58%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.86 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

72%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Jagiellonia Fiorentina
HATHAT
Played6612448
Wins67%33%50%75%50%63%
Draws17%67%42%0%0%0%
Loses17%0%8%25%50%38%

Form: Jagiellonia: WWWDWDWDDWLD • Fiorentina: WWWWLLWL

League goals

Metric Jagiellonia Fiorentina
HATHAT
GF total116177714
GF avg1.81.01.41.81.81.8
GA total549437
GA avg0.80.70.81.00.80.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineJagielloniaFiorentina
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.592%58%75%63%
1.533%17%63%25%
2.517%0%38%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricJagielloniaFiorentina
HATHAT
Clean sheets325123
Failed to score011112

Penalties

MetricJagielloniaFiorentina
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricJagielloniaFiorentina
Wins34
Draws20
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-22-00-3
Biggest losses1-2—0-12-1
Goals For3233
Goals Against2122

Model comparison

MetricJagielloniaFiorentina
Form50%50%
Att40%60%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution39%61%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total46.3%53.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Fiorentina and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.02 @ 1xBet
Draw3.30 @ Bet365
Away2.53 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.98 @ 188Bet
Under 2.51.92 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.73 @ Pinnacle
No2.15 @ Fonbet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Jagiellonia = 0.88 (league 1.64), Fiorentina = 1.24 (league 1.16)

Fiorentina
0 1 2 3 4 5
Jagiellonia 0 12.0% 14.9% 9.2% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3%
1 10.6% 13.1% 8.1% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3%
2 4.7% 5.8% 3.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
3 1.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 26.3% · Draw 29.1% · Away win 44.4%

vtt 3 , vtd1