Fri, Feb 6 2026 • 19:45 • Essity Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.89 (league 1.59) 1.97 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
36.6% 21.1% 39.5%
best score tips
1 - 1
7.8%
1 - 2
7.7%
2 - 1
7.4%
Score & goals probability table
Caernarfon Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
GAP Connah S Quay FC 0 2.1% 4.1% 4.1% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5%
1 4.0% 7.8% 7.7% 5.1% 2.5% 1.0%
2 3.8% 7.4% 7.3% 4.8% 2.4% 0.9%
3 2.4% 4.7% 4.6% 3.0% 1.5% 0.6%
4 1.1% 2.2% 2.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3%
5 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGAP Connah S Quay FCCaernarfon Town
Played55
Form73%40%
Attack100%45%
Defense45%55%
Goals For (tot | avg)12 | 2.45 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.25 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

69%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

79%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric GAP Connah S Quay FC Caernarfon Town
HATHAT
Played111223111223
Wins64%58%61%36%42%39%
Draws18%33%26%27%42%35%
Loses18%8%13%36%17%26%

Form: GAP Connah S Quay FC: DLWWLDWLDWWWDWWWWWWWWDD • Caernarfon Town: DWWWDWWLWLLLDWWDDLDLWDD

League goals

Metric GAP Connah S Quay FC Caernarfon Town
HATHAT
GF total282250232144
GF avg2.51.82.22.11.81.9
GA total161127181432
GA avg1.50.91.21.61.21.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGAP Connah S Quay FCCaernarfon Town
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.591%70%83%83%
1.570%35%52%48%
2.548%13%22%9%
3.59%0%17%0%
4.50%0%13%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGAP Connah S Quay FCCaernarfon Town
HATHAT
Clean sheets257134
Failed to score022134

Penalties

MetricGAP Connah S Quay FCCaernarfon Town
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total54

Streaks

MetricGAP Connah S Quay FCCaernarfon Town
Wins83
Draws12
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-36-12-5
Biggest losses1-33-00-32-0
Goals For4365
Goals Against3332

Model comparison

MetricGAP Connah S Quay FCCaernarfon Town
Form65%35%
Att71%29%
Def45%55%
Poisson Distribution52%48%
H2h38%62%
Goals44%56%
Total52.5%47.5%

Advice: Double chance : GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.80 @ 10Bet
Draw3.76 @ Pinnacle
Away4.22 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.72 @ SBO
Under 2.52.16 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.21 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): GAP Connah S Quay FC = 1.89 (league 1.59), Caernarfon Town = 1.97 (league 1.37)

Caernarfon Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
GAP Connah S Quay FC 0 2.1% 4.1% 4.1% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5%
1 4.0% 7.8% 7.7% 5.1% 2.5% 1.0%
2 3.8% 7.4% 7.3% 4.8% 2.4% 0.9%
3 2.4% 4.7% 4.6% 3.0% 1.5% 0.6%
4 1.1% 2.2% 2.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3%
5 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 36.6% · Draw 21.1% · Away win 39.5%

vtt 1 , vtd1