Chernomorets Balchik vs Ustrem Donchevo

Third League - Northeast — Bulgaria

Sat, Feb 28 2026 • 12:00 • Balchik Stadium

Match Finished

Chernomorets Balchik

4 - 1

Ustrem Donchevo

Expected Goals

4.36 (league 1.86) 0.86 (league 1.40)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
64.4%	5.5%	2.8%

best score tips

4 - 0

8.2%

3 - 0

7.5%

5 - 0

7.1%

Score & goals probability table

		Ustrem Donchevo
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Chernomorets Balchik	0	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
	1	2.4%	2.0%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
	2	5.2%	4.4%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
	3	7.5%	6.4%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
	4	8.2%	7.0%	3.0%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%
	5	7.1%	6.1%	2.6%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Chernomorets Balchik	Ustrem Donchevo
Played	5	5
Form	87%	87%
Attack	60%	85%
Defense	95%	80%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	12 \| 2.4	17 \| 3.4
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	1 \| 0.2	4 \| 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.40

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.00

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%

FT probability

2.5+

81%

FT probability

3.5+

58%

FT probability

BTTS

77%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Chernomorets Balchik			Ustrem Donchevo
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	9	7	16	8	9	17
Wins	78%	86%	81%	88%	33%	59%
Draws	22%	0%	13%	0%	11%	6%
Loses	0%	14%	6%	13%	56%	35%

Form: Chernomorets Balchik: WWWWWWWLWWDWDWWW • Ustrem Donchevo: WLWWLWLWLLLWWWDWW

League goals

Metric	Chernomorets Balchik			Ustrem Donchevo
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	27	16	43	28	18	46
GF avg	3.0	2.3	2.7	3.5	2.0	2.7
GA total	5	2	7	12	24	36
GA avg	0.6	0.3	0.4	1.5	2.7	2.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Chernomorets Balchik		Ustrem Donchevo
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	94%	38%	88%	82%
1.5	69%	6%	71%	47%
2.5	56%	0%	53%	29%
3.5	31%	0%	41%	24%
4.5	13%	0%	18%	12%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Chernomorets Balchik			Ustrem Donchevo
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	5	5	10	2	1	3
Failed to score	0	1	1	0	2	2

Penalties

Metric	Chernomorets Balchik	Ustrem Donchevo
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Streaks

Metric	Chernomorets Balchik	Ustrem Donchevo
Wins	7	3
Draws	1	1
Losses	1	3

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	6-0	1-5	5-0	0-5
Biggest losses	—	1-0	1-5	8-0
Goals For	6	5	5	5
Goals Against	2	1	5	8

Model comparison

Metric	Chernomorets Balchik	Ustrem Donchevo
Form	50%	50%
Att	41%	59%
Def	80%	20%
Poisson Distribution	81%	19%
H2h	100%	0%
Goals	94%	6%
Total	69.2%	30.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Chernomorets Balchik or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • Chernomorets Balchik vs Ustrem Donchevo

Expected goals (λ): Chernomorets Balchik = 4.36 (league 1.86), Ustrem Donchevo = 0.86 (league 1.40)

		Ustrem Donchevo
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Chernomorets Balchik	0	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
	1	2.4%	2.0%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
	2	5.2%	4.4%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
	3	7.5%	6.4%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
	4	8.2%	7.0%	3.0%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%
	5	7.1%	6.1%	2.6%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 64.4% · Draw 5.5% · Away win 2.8%

vtt 1 , vtd1

Metric	Chernomorets Balchik	Ustrem Donchevo
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0