Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 05:00 •
Paju Stadium
Expected Goals
1.14 (league 1.31)
0.52 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | 32.0% | 16.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
21.6%
0 - 0
18.9%
2 - 0
12.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Gyeongnam FC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Paju Citizen | 0 | 18.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 21.6% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.4% | 6.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Paju Citizen carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 136 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Paju Citizen +16.5, Gyeongnam FC -5.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Paju Citizen
vs
Gyeongnam FC
Elo gapPaju Citizen +136
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share69%
Combined Elo2914.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2914.4
Elo home share
69%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Paju Citizen | Gyeongnam FC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1507.8 | 1406.6 |
| Form Elo | 1515.7 | 1392.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1475.5 | 1464.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1469.9 | 1366.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1531.7 | 1443.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +16.5 | -5.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Paju Citizen last-5 Elo change: +16.5; Gyeongnam FC last-5 Elo change: -5.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Paju Citizen | Gyeongnam FC |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 33% |
| Attack | 57% | 36% |
| Defense | 57% | 57% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Paju Citizen | Gyeongnam FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Wins | 50% | 50% | 50% | 20% | 0% | 14% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20% | 50% | 29% |
| Loses | 50% | 50% | 50% | 60% | 50% | 57% |
Paju CitizenLLWWLWLW
Gyeongnam FCLLDWDLL
League goals
| Metric | Paju Citizen | Gyeongnam FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 5 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 11 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Paju Citizen | Gyeongnam FC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 75% | 71% | 86% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 38% | 14% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 25% | 0% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Paju Citizen | Gyeongnam FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Paju Citizen | Gyeongnam FC |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Paju Citizen | Gyeongnam FC |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-2 | 1-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-2 | 1-4 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Paju Citizen | Gyeongnam FC |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 64% | 36% |
| Att | 62% | 38% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 73% | 27% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 62.3% | 37.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.38 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.14 @ Pinnacle
Away3.10 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.83 @ William Hill
No1.90 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.13 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.70 @ Betano
📊
League standings
Loading standings…