Gimhae City vs Busan I Park

K League 2 — South-Korea

Sun, May 3 2026 • 07:30 • Gimhae Sports Complex

Not Started

Gimhae City

—

Busan I Park

Expected Goals

0.85 (league 1.32) 5.77 (league 1.25)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
1.0%	2.2%	45.2%

best score tips

0 - 5

7.1%

0 - 4

6.2%

1 - 5

6.0%

Score & goals probability table

		Busan I Park
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Gimhae City	0	0.1%	0.8%	2.2%	4.3%	6.2%	7.1%
	1	0.1%	0.7%	1.9%	3.6%	5.2%	6.0%
	2	0.0%	0.3%	0.8%	1.5%	2.2%	2.6%
	3	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%	0.6%	0.7%
	4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Gimhae City -43.7, Busan I Park +23.3.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Gimhae City Elo 1517 · -43.7

Busan I Park Elo 1555.1 · +23.3

Elo gapBusan I Park +3

Home / draw / away35% / 30% / 35%

Expected home share50%

Combined Elo3072.1

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3072.1

Elo home share 50%

Match tone Strong Watch

Metric	Gimhae City	Busan I Park
Overall Elo	1517	1555.1
Form Elo	1466.5	1581.8
Home / Away Elo	1506.6	1538.7
Attack Elo	1541.3	1531.9
Defense Elo	1509.2	1520
Last 5 Elo change	-43.7	+23.3

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Gimhae City last-5 Elo change: -43.7; Busan I Park last-5 Elo change: +23.3.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Gimhae City	Busan I Park
Played	5	5
Form	13%	80%
Attack	33%	83%
Defense	0%	50%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	4 \| 0.8	10 \| 2
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	12 \| 2.4	6 \| 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.60

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%

FT probability

2.5+

72%

FT probability

3.5+

51%

FT probability

BTTS

87%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Gimhae City			Busan I Park
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	3	5	8	4	5	9
Wins	0%	0%	0%	75%	80%	78%
Draws	0%	40%	25%	25%	0%	11%
Loses	100%	60%	75%	0%	20%	11%

Gimhae CityLLLLLDDL

Busan I ParkDWWWWWWWL

League goals

Metric	Gimhae City			Busan I Park
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	2	4	6	8	12	20
GF avg	0.7	0.8	0.8	2.0	2.4	2.2
GA total	9	11	20	3	8	11
GA avg	3.0	2.2	2.5	0.8	1.6	1.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Gimhae City		Busan I Park
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	75%	100%	100%	89%
1.5	0%	75%	89%	22%
2.5	0%	50%	33%	11%
3.5	0%	25%	0%	0%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Gimhae City			Busan I Park
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	0	0	0	1	0	1
Failed to score	1	1	2	0	0	0

Penalties

Metric	Gimhae City	Busan I Park
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	1

Streaks

Metric	Gimhae City	Busan I Park
Wins	0	7
Draws	2	1
Losses	5	0

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	—	—	3-1	1-3
Biggest losses	1-4	4-1	—	3-2
Goals For	1	1	3	3
Goals Against	4	4	1	3

Model comparison

Metric	Gimhae City	Busan I Park
Form	14%	86%
Att	29%	71%
Def	33%	67%
Poisson Distribution	14%	86%
H2h	0%	0%
Goals	0%	0%
Total	22.5%	77.5%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.04 @ Pinnacle

Draw3.42 @ Pinnacle

Away1.93 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.91 @ William Hill

No1.83 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.10 @ Pinnacle

Under 2.51.72 @ Betano

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Gimhae City vs Busan I Park

Metric	Gimhae City	Busan I Park
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	1