Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 12:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
4.71 (league 1.70)
0.52 (league 1.43)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 62.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
best score tips
4 - 0
10.9%
5 - 0
10.3%
3 - 0
9.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Ahlafors | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Motala | 0 | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.0% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.4% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 11.0% | 5.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 10.3% | 5.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Motala carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 57 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Motala -19.8, Ahlafors -10.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Motala
vs
Ahlafors
Elo gapMotala +57
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo3066.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3066.1
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Motala | Ahlafors |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1544 | 1522.1 |
| Form Elo | 1516.5 | 1514.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1533.8 | 1482.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1629 | 1535.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1488.2 | 1464.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -19.8 | -10.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Motala last-5 Elo change: -19.8; Ahlafors last-5 Elo change: -10.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Motala | Ahlafors |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 33% | 42% |
| Attack | 60% | 60% |
| Defense | 50% | 30% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.5 | 6 | 1.5 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1.3 | 7 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
90%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Motala | Ahlafors | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 25% | 33% | 0% | 25% |
| Draws | 50% | 0% | 25% | 67% | 0% | 50% |
| Loses | 0% | 100% | 50% | 0% | 100% | 25% |
MotalaWLDL
AhlaforsDLDW
League goals
| Metric | Motala | Ahlafors | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Motala | Ahlafors | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 0% | 25% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Motala | Ahlafors | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Motala | Ahlafors |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Motala | Ahlafors |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | — | 3-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-1 | — | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Motala | Ahlafors |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 47% | 53% |
| Total | 49.8% | 50.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.93 @ Unibet
Draw3.90 @ Dafabet
Away3.35 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.49 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.33 @ Unibet
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League standings
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