Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 17:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.44 (league 1.69)
1.62 (league 1.54)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 9.7% | 23.6% | 66.0% |
best score tips
0 - 1
20.6%
0 - 2
16.7%
0 - 0
12.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Österlen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lilla Torg | 0 | 12.7% | 20.6% | 16.7% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Lilla Torg carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 26 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lilla Torg -25.3, Österlen -8.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Lilla Torg
vs
Österlen
Elo gapLilla Torg +26
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo2916.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2916.2
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Lilla Torg | Österlen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1453.4 | 1462.8 |
| Form Elo | 1433.8 | 1459.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1484.1 | 1480.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1431.9 | 1528.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1381.2 | 1446 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -25.3 | -8.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Lilla Torg last-5 Elo change: -25.3; Österlen last-5 Elo change: -8.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lilla Torg | Österlen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 40% |
| Attack | 11% | 32% |
| Defense | 37% | 58% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lilla Torg | Österlen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 20% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
| Draws | 0% | 33% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 50% | 67% | 60% | 67% | 50% | 60% |
Lilla TorgLLDWL
ÖsterlenLWLLW
League goals
| Metric | Lilla Torg | Österlen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| GF avg | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 5 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| GA avg | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lilla Torg | Österlen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 40% | 80% | 100% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 60% | 20% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 40% | 0% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 40% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 20% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lilla Torg | Österlen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lilla Torg | Österlen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lilla Torg | Österlen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | — | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 4-0 | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lilla Torg | Österlen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 25% | 75% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 22% | 78% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 31.8% | 68.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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