Primera B — Chile
Fri, May 1 2026 • 00:00 • Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK
Not Started

Union Espanola

—

Curico Unido

Expected Goals
2.97 (league 1.29) 1.06 (league 0.91)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
67.9% 13.6% 10.3%
best score tips
2 - 1
8.3%
3 - 1
8.2%
2 - 0
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
Curico Unido
0 1 2 3 4 5
Union Espanola 0 1.8% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 5.3% 5.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
2 7.8% 8.3% 4.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
3 7.8% 8.2% 4.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
4 5.8% 6.1% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
5 3.4% 3.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away edge

Curico Unido carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 51 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Union Espanola +7.4, Curico Unido +15.5.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Union Espanola Elo 1392.7 · +7.4
vs
Curico Unido Elo 1478.4 · +15.5
Elo gapCurico Unido +51
Home / draw / away33% / 24% / 43%
Expected home share43%
Combined Elo2871.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2871.1
Elo home share 43%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Union Espanola Curico Unido
Overall Elo1392.71478.4
Form Elo1396.31497.8
Home / Away Elo1464.41486.8
Attack Elo1458.31438.5
Defense Elo1416.21496.4
Last 5 Elo change+7.4+15.5

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Union Espanola last-5 Elo change: +7.4; Curico Unido last-5 Elo change: +15.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricUnion EspanolaCurico Unido
Played55
Form53%40%
Attack43%50%
Defense64%43%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 18 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%
FT probability

2.5+

57%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Union Espanola Curico Unido
HATHAT
Played549459
Wins60%0%33%50%0%22%
Draws20%25%22%25%60%44%
Loses20%75%44%25%40%33%
Union EspanolaWLLLWLDDW
Curico UnidoLDLWLDDDW

League goals

Metric Union Espanola Curico Unido
HATHAT
GF total83115611
GF avg1.60.81.21.31.21.2
GA total471141216
GA avg0.81.81.21.02.41.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineUnion EspanolaCurico Unido
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.589%78%89%78%
1.533%44%33%44%
2.50%0%0%22%
3.50%0%0%22%
4.50%0%0%11%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricUnion EspanolaCurico Unido
HATHAT
Clean sheets202112
Failed to score011011

Penalties

MetricUnion EspanolaCurico Unido
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricUnion EspanolaCurico Unido
Wins11
Draws23
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-0—2-1—
Biggest losses1-22-01-25-1
Goals For2122
Goals Against2225

Model comparison

MetricUnion EspanolaCurico Unido
Form57%43%
Att46%54%
Def62%38%
Poisson Distribution75%25%
H2h71%29%
Goals54%46%
Total60.8%39.2%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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