Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 22:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.69 (league 1.35)
0.64 (league 0.99)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 74.9% | 13.0% | 6.5% |
best score tips
2 - 0
12.9%
3 - 0
11.6%
1 - 0
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Independiente Res. | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Boca Juniors Res. | 0 | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.6% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.9% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.6% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.8% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Boca Juniors Res. carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 135 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Boca Juniors Res. +0.7, Independiente Res. +10.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Boca Juniors Res.
vs
Independiente Res.
Elo gapBoca Juniors Res. +135
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share69%
Combined Elo3148.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3148.2
Elo home share
69%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Boca Juniors Res. | Independiente Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1624.2 | 1524 |
| Form Elo | 1626.2 | 1542 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1558 | 1487.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1616.7 | 1559.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1648.1 | 1516.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +0.7 | +10.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Boca Juniors Res. last-5 Elo change: +0.7; Independiente Res. last-5 Elo change: +10.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Boca Juniors Res. | Independiente Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 53% |
| Attack | 58% | 75% |
| Defense | 75% | 42% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
85%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Boca Juniors Res. | Independiente Res. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Wins | 100% | 40% | 70% | 60% | 40% | 50% |
| Draws | 0% | 40% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Loses | 0% | 20% | 10% | 20% | 40% | 30% |
Boca Juniors Res.DWWWWWLWDW
Independiente Res.LWWWLDDWWL
League goals
| Metric | Boca Juniors Res. | Independiente Res. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 8 | 21 | 12 | 8 | 20 |
| GF avg | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| GA avg | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Boca Juniors Res. | Independiente Res. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 90% | 50% | 80% | 70% |
| 1.5 | 70% | 10% | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 0% | 30% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Boca Juniors Res. | Independiente Res. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Boca Juniors Res. | Independiente Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Boca Juniors Res. | Independiente Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-4 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | — | 1-0 | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Boca Juniors Res. | Independiente Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 70% | 30% |
| Poisson Distribution | 79% | 21% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 63.0% | 37.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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