Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 18:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.07 (league 1.35)
0.32 (league 0.99)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 77.0% | 16.3% | 4.7% |
best score tips
2 - 0
19.6%
1 - 0
18.9%
3 - 0
13.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Estudiantes La Plata Res | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Defensa y Justicia Res. | 0 | 9.1% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.9% | 6.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 19.6% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 13.5% | 4.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Defensa y Justicia Res. carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 25 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Defensa y Justicia Res. +36.4, Estudiantes La Plata Res -19.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Defensa y Justicia Res.
vs
Estudiantes La Plata Res
Elo gapDefensa y Justicia Res. +25
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo2998.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2998.2
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Defensa y Justicia Res. | Estudiantes La Plata Res |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1494 | 1504.2 |
| Form Elo | 1521.8 | 1499.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1484.1 | 1498.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1552.1 | 1471.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1486.5 | 1602.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +36.4 | -19.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Defensa y Justicia Res. last-5 Elo change: +36.4; Estudiantes La Plata Res last-5 Elo change: -19.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Defensa y Justicia Res. | Estudiantes La Plata Res |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 27% |
| Attack | 100% | 17% |
| Defense | 67% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Defensa y Justicia Res. | Estudiantes La Plata Res | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Wins | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 0% | 30% |
| Draws | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Loses | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 60% | 40% |
Defensa y Justicia Res.WWLLWDWWDW
Estudiantes La Plata ResDDWLWLLLDW
League goals
| Metric | Defensa y Justicia Res. | Estudiantes La Plata Res | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 9 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| GF avg | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 4 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Defensa y Justicia Res. | Estudiantes La Plata Res | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 90% | 70% | 50% | 40% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 30% | 10% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Defensa y Justicia Res. | Estudiantes La Plata Res | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Defensa y Justicia Res. | Estudiantes La Plata Res |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Defensa y Justicia Res. | Estudiantes La Plata Res |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 8-0 | 2-4 | 3-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Defensa y Justicia Res. | Estudiantes La Plata Res |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 73% | 27% |
| Att | 88% | 13% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 85% | 15% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 63.3% | 36.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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