Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 18:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.69 (league 1.35)
1.21 (league 0.99)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 63.2% | 16.4% | 14.7% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.9%
3 - 1
7.9%
2 - 0
7.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Atl. Rafaela 2 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ferro 2 | 0 | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.3% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 6.6% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 2.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Ferro 2 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 40 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ferro 2 +5.2, Atl. Rafaela 2 -42.6.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Ferro 2
vs
Atl. Rafaela 2
Elo gapFerro 2 +40
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo2896.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2896.6
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Ferro 2 | Atl. Rafaela 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1450.6 | 1446 |
| Form Elo | 1443.6 | 1419.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1503.7 | 1467.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1456.4 | 1502.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1432.7 | 1468.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.2 | -42.6 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Ferro 2 last-5 Elo change: +5.2; Atl. Rafaela 2 last-5 Elo change: -42.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ferro 2 | Atl. Rafaela 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 7% |
| Attack | 50% | 33% |
| Defense | 50% | 25% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
83%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ferro 2 | Atl. Rafaela 2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Wins | 40% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 0% | 20% |
| Draws | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 0% | 10% |
| Loses | 40% | 60% | 50% | 40% | 100% | 70% |
Ferro 2LWLDLWWLDL
Atl. Rafaela 2LWLWLLLLDL
League goals
| Metric | Ferro 2 | Atl. Rafaela 2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 5 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 13 | 17 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ferro 2 | Atl. Rafaela 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 70% | 70% | 90% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 50% | 40% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ferro 2 | Atl. Rafaela 2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ferro 2 | Atl. Rafaela 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ferro 2 | Atl. Rafaela 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-1 | 4-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ferro 2 | Atl. Rafaela 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 88% | 13% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 67% | 33% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 68.8% | 31.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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