Tue, Mar 10 2026 • 01:30 • Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.09 (league 1.43) 0.79 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
65.5% 19.5% 13.0%
best score tips
2 - 0
12.2%
1 - 0
11.7%
2 - 1
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
FBC Melgar
0 1 2 3 4 5
Alianza Lima 0 5.6% 4.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 11.7% 9.3% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 12.2% 9.7% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
3 8.5% 6.8% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
4 4.5% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAlianza LimaFBC Melgar
Played55
Form87%60%
Attack33%56%
Defense89%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.210 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Alianza Lima FBC Melgar
HATHAT
Played235325
Wins100%67%80%67%50%60%
Draws0%33%20%0%0%0%
Loses0%0%0%33%50%40%

Form: Alianza Lima: WWDWW • FBC Melgar: WWWLL

League goals

Metric Alianza Lima FBC Melgar
HATHAT
GF total3367310
GF avg1.51.01.22.31.52.0
GA total112246
GA avg0.50.30.40.72.01.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAlianza LimaFBC Melgar
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%40%100%60%
1.540%0%60%40%
2.50%0%20%20%
3.50%0%20%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAlianza LimaFBC Melgar
HATHAT
Clean sheets123202
Failed to score011000

Penalties

MetricAlianza LimaFBC Melgar
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricAlianza LimaFBC Melgar
Wins23
Draws10
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-24-01-2
Biggest losses——1-23-1
Goals For2242
Goals Against1123

Model comparison

MetricAlianza LimaFBC Melgar
Form59%41%
Att38%63%
Def75%25%
Poisson Distribution70%30%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total57.0%43.2%

Advice: Double chance : Alianza Lima or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.72 @ Betano
Draw3.90 @ Unibet
Away6.14 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.12 @ Marathonbet
Under 2.51.76 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.16 @ 188Bet
No1.77 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Alianza Lima = 2.09 (league 1.43), FBC Melgar = 0.79 (league 0.95)

FBC Melgar
0 1 2 3 4 5
Alianza Lima 0 5.6% 4.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 11.7% 9.3% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 12.2% 9.7% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
3 8.5% 6.8% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
4 4.5% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 65.5% · Draw 19.5% · Away win 13.0%

vtt 1 , vtd1