Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 18:15 •
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Expected Goals
1.89 (league 1.48)
0.84 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 60.8% | 21.8% | 16.1% |
best score tips
1 - 0
12.3%
2 - 0
11.6%
1 - 1
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Sport Huancayo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cusco | 0 | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.3% | 10.3% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.3% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Cusco carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 90 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Cusco +12.5, Sport Huancayo -12.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Cusco
vs
Sport Huancayo
Elo gapCusco +90
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo3025.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3025.2
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Cusco | Sport Huancayo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1539.9 | 1485.3 |
| Form Elo | 1542.5 | 1484.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1527.8 | 1478 |
| Attack Elo | 1520.3 | 1535.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1515 | 1486.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.5 | -12.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Cusco last-5 Elo change: +12.5; Sport Huancayo last-5 Elo change: -12.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cusco | Sport Huancayo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 33% |
| Attack | 54% | 38% |
| Defense | 8% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cusco | Sport Huancayo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Wins | 60% | 33% | 45% | 50% | 0% | 27% |
| Draws | 20% | 0% | 9% | 17% | 40% | 27% |
| Loses | 20% | 67% | 45% | 33% | 60% | 45% |
CuscoLDLWLWLWWLW
Sport HuancayoLDWLWLLLDDW
League goals
| Metric | Cusco | Sport Huancayo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 4 | 14 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 16 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cusco | Sport Huancayo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 82% | 73% | 82% |
| 1.5 | 27% | 27% | 45% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 9% | 0% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 9% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 9% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cusco | Sport Huancayo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cusco | Sport Huancayo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cusco | Sport Huancayo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-3 | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 8-0 | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 8 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cusco | Sport Huancayo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 64% | 36% |
| Att | 58% | 42% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 67% | 33% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 58.2% | 41.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.77 @ Dafabet
Draw3.76 @ Pinnacle
Away4.75 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.92 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.93 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.81 @ Marathonbet
No2.00 @ Betfair
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League standings
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