Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 23:00 •
Estadio Monumental
Expected Goals
1.89 (league 1.48)
0.19 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 78.3% | 17.4% | 3.1% |
best score tips
1 - 0
23.6%
2 - 0
22.3%
3 - 0
14.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Alianza Atletico | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Universitario | 0 | 12.5% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 23.6% | 4.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 22.3% | 4.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 14.1% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Universitario carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 146 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Universitario +7.2, Alianza Atletico -21.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Universitario
vs
Alianza Atletico
Elo gapUniversitario +146
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share70%
Combined Elo3117
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3117
Elo home share
70%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Universitario | Alianza Atletico |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1614.1 | 1502.9 |
| Form Elo | 1624.2 | 1481.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1562.1 | 1474.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1563.8 | 1443.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1617.8 | 1606 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +7.2 | -21.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Universitario last-5 Elo change: +7.2; Alianza Atletico last-5 Elo change: -21.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Universitario | Alianza Atletico |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Attack | 62% | 46% |
| Defense | 77% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
60%
FT probability
2.5+
42%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Universitario | Alianza Atletico | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Wins | 100% | 0% | 55% | 33% | 0% | 18% |
| Draws | 0% | 60% | 27% | 50% | 40% | 45% |
| Loses | 0% | 40% | 18% | 17% | 60% | 36% |
UniversitarioWDWDWLWDWLW
Alianza AtleticoWLDDDLWDDLL
League goals
| Metric | Universitario | Alianza Atletico | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 5 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 2 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| GA avg | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Universitario | Alianza Atletico | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 91% | 55% | 55% | 64% |
| 1.5 | 45% | 27% | 18% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Universitario | Alianza Atletico | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Universitario | Alianza Atletico |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Universitario | Alianza Atletico |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | — | 3-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Universitario | Alianza Atletico |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 63% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 89% | 11% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 89% | 11% |
| Total | 74.2% | 26.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.40 @ Unibet
Draw5.20 @ Dafabet
Away12.00 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.10 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.90 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.50 @ Bet365
No1.57 @ William Hill
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League standings
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