Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
4.86 (league 1.80)
1.04 (league 1.38)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 56.5% | 4.8% | 2.7% |
best score tips
4 - 1
6.6%
5 - 1
6.4%
4 - 0
6.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Kuressaare | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Nõmme United | 0 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.2% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 6.4% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Nõmme United carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 215 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Nõmme United -31.1, Kuressaare +4.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Nõmme United
vs
Kuressaare
Elo gapNõmme United +215
Home / draw / away63% / 18% / 19%
Expected home share77%
Combined Elo3071.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3071.7
Elo home share
77%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Nõmme United | Kuressaare |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1625.7 | 1446 |
| Form Elo | 1594.6 | 1449.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1574.5 | 1448.2 |
| Attack Elo | 2048.8 | 1472.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1487.3 | 1413.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -31.1 | +4.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Nõmme United last-5 Elo change: -31.1; Kuressaare last-5 Elo change: +4.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Nõmme United | Kuressaare |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 40% |
| Attack | 100% | 67% |
| Defense | 0% | 22% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
81%
FT probability
3.5+
58%
FT probability
BTTS
85%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Nõmme United | Kuressaare | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 29% | 50% | 25% | 38% |
| Draws | 0% | 33% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 50% | 67% | 57% | 50% | 75% | 63% |
Nõmme UnitedLWLDLWL
KuressaareLWLLLWWL
League goals
| Metric | Nõmme United | Kuressaare | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 2 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| GF avg | 3.8 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 7 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
| GA avg | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Nõmme United | Kuressaare | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 57% | 38% | 63% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 43% | 25% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 29% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Nõmme United | Kuressaare | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Nõmme United | Kuressaare |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Nõmme United | Kuressaare |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-1 | — | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 3-0 | 0-1 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Nõmme United | Kuressaare |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 63% | 38% |
| Def | 41% | 59% |
| Poisson Distribution | 80% | 20% |
| H2h | 25% | 75% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 48.2% | 52.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.89 @ Unibet
Draw3.75 @ 1xBet
Away3.58 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.46 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.43 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.42 @ Unibet
No2.50 @ Unibet
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League standings
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