Meistriliiga
— Estonia
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 11:30 •
Paide linnastaadion
Expected Goals
2.84 (league 1.80)
0.07 (league 1.38)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 86.2% | 6.5% | 0.4% |
best score tips
2 - 0
22.1%
3 - 0
20.9%
1 - 0
15.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Flora Tallinn | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Paide | 0 | 5.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 22.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 20.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 14.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 8.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Paide carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 43 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Paide +35.7, Flora Tallinn -13.6.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Paide
vs
Flora Tallinn
Elo gapPaide +43
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo3320.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3320.7
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Paide | Flora Tallinn |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1664.4 | 1656.3 |
| Form Elo | 1685 | 1639.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1608.7 | 1550.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1727.5 | 1813.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1679.6 | 1714.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +35.7 | -13.6 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Paide last-5 Elo change: +35.7; Flora Tallinn last-5 Elo change: -13.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Paide | Flora Tallinn |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 60% |
| Attack | 50% | 50% |
| Defense | 82% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
83%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Paide | Flora Tallinn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Wins | 100% | 40% | 63% | 80% | 0% | 50% |
| Draws | 0% | 40% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 20% | 13% | 20% | 100% | 50% |
PaideLWDWWWWD
Flora TallinnWLLLWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Paide | Flora Tallinn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 11 | 16 | 13 | 1 | 14 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 1 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 11 |
| GA avg | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Paide | Flora Tallinn | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 63% | 63% | 63% |
| 1.5 | 63% | 38% | 50% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 13% | 25% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 0% | 13% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 13% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Paide | Flora Tallinn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Paide | Flora Tallinn |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Paide | Flora Tallinn |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-4 | 6-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-2 | 0-1 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Paide | Flora Tallinn |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 59% | 41% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 96% | 4% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 46% | 54% |
| Total | 61.3% | 38.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.38 @ Unibet
Draw3.50 @ 1xBet
Away2.74 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.62 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.12 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.49 @ Unibet
No2.33 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…