Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 19:30 •
Estadio Municipal de Mafra
Expected Goals
0.98 (league 1.23)
1.17 (league 1.03)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.4% | 29.4% | 40.1% |
best score tips
0 - 1
13.6%
1 - 1
13.4%
0 - 0
11.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Trofense | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mafra | 0 | 11.7% | 13.6% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 11.4% | 13.4% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 5.6% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Mafra carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 51 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Mafra -9.3, Trofense -3.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Mafra
vs
Trofense
Elo gapMafra +51
Home / draw / away43% / 24% / 33%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo3000.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3000.3
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Mafra | Trofense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1508.3 | 1492 |
| Form Elo | 1494.9 | 1479 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1523.5 | 1529 |
| Attack Elo | 1489.8 | 1469.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1452 | 1575 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -9.3 | -3.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Mafra last-5 Elo change: -9.3; Trofense last-5 Elo change: -3.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Mafra | Trofense |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 40% |
| Attack | 43% | 29% |
| Defense | 21% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
65%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Mafra | Trofense | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 57% | 29% | 43% | 21% | 43% | 32% |
| Draws | 21% | 36% | 29% | 21% | 43% | 32% |
| Loses | 21% | 36% | 29% | 57% | 14% | 36% |
MafraDLWDDWWWWLDDWWWDDWWLDLLLLWWL
TrofenseDWDWWLWDLDDDWWLWLDDLLDLWLLWL
League goals
| Metric | Mafra | Trofense | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 17 | 38 | 14 | 15 | 29 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 16 | 21 | 37 | 15 | 11 | 26 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Mafra | Trofense | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 71% | 61% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 36% | 32% | 25% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 18% | 7% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 11% | 7% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Mafra | Trofense | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Mafra | Trofense |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Mafra | Trofense |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-2 | 0-2 | 5-1 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 4-1 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Mafra | Trofense |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 31% | 69% |
| Poisson Distribution | 45% | 55% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 70% | 30% |
| Total | 56.8% | 43.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.20 @ Unibet
Draw3.17 @ Pinnacle
Away3.70 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.91 @ William Hill
No1.80 @ William Hill
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.29 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.65 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
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