Expected Goals
0.80 (league 1.23)
0.77 (league 1.03)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 32.9% | 35.7% | 31.4% |
best score tips
0 - 0
20.7%
1 - 0
16.6%
0 - 1
16.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Guimaraes B | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Varzim | 0 | 20.7% | 16.1% | 6.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.6% | 12.8% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Guimaraes B carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 34 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Varzim -7.0, Guimaraes B -17.1.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Varzim
vs
Guimaraes B
Elo gapGuimaraes B +34
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo3098.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3098.3
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Varzim | Guimaraes B |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1514.9 | 1583.4 |
| Form Elo | 1505.7 | 1585.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1527.8 | 1542.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1500 | 1528.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1539.1 | 1591.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -7.0 | -17.1 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Varzim last-5 Elo change: -7.0; Guimaraes B last-5 Elo change: -17.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Varzim | Guimaraes B |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 33% |
| Attack | 29% | 29% |
| Defense | 57% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
58%
FT probability
2.5+
41%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Varzim | Guimaraes B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 50% | 29% | 39% | 43% | 43% | 43% |
| Draws | 29% | 21% | 25% | 21% | 36% | 29% |
| Loses | 21% | 50% | 36% | 36% | 21% | 29% |
VarzimWWLDDDLDWDDWDLLWWWWLWLLLWLLW
Guimaraes BDLWDDLDLWWWWDLWLWWLDWWWLLWDD
League goals
| Metric | Varzim | Guimaraes B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 14 | 34 | 18 | 14 | 32 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 11 | 18 | 29 | 15 | 10 | 25 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Varzim | Guimaraes B | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 64% | 71% | 79% | 54% |
| 1.5 | 39% | 21% | 29% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 11% | 7% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Varzim | Guimaraes B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Varzim | Guimaraes B |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 7 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 7 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Varzim | Guimaraes B |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Varzim | Guimaraes B |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 55% | 45% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 53% | 47% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 46% | 54% |
| Total | 49.8% | 50.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.36 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.15 @ Unibet
Away3.15 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.86 @ Marathonbet
No1.95 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.29 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.72 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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