Liga 3 — Portugal
Sat, Feb 14 2026 • 11:00 • Municipal de Marco de Canaveses
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.97 (league 1.25) 1.75 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
20.8% 23.5% 54.7%
best score tips
0 - 1
11.5%
1 - 1
11.2%
0 - 2
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
Paredes
0 1 2 3 4 5
AD Marco 09 0 6.6% 11.5% 10.1% 5.9% 2.6% 0.9%
1 6.4% 11.2% 9.8% 5.7% 2.5% 0.9%
2 3.1% 5.4% 4.7% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4%
3 1.0% 1.8% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAD Marco 09Paredes
Played55
Form40%87%
Attack45%100%
Defense18%82%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 111 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.82 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

63%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric AD Marco 09 Paredes
HATHAT
Played99189918
Wins33%11%22%33%33%33%
Draws44%33%39%67%33%50%
Loses22%56%39%0%33%17%

Form: AD Marco 09: DDDWDDLDLLWDLWLLWL • Paredes: LDDDDDWLDWLDDWWWDW

League goals

Metric AD Marco 09 Paredes
HATHAT
GF total1051591322
GF avg1.10.60.81.01.41.2
GA total12102221012
GA avg1.31.11.20.21.10.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAD Marco 09Paredes
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.561%67%61%50%
1.522%39%44%17%
2.50%17%17%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAD Marco 09Paredes
HATHAT
Clean sheets246729
Failed to score257437

Penalties

MetricAD Marco 09Paredes
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total03

Streaks

MetricAD Marco 09Paredes
Wins13
Draws35
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-13-00-3
Biggest losses0-32-0—2-1
Goals For2233
Goals Against3312

Model comparison

MetricAD Marco 09Paredes
Form32%68%
Att31%69%
Def18%82%
Poisson Distribution34%66%
H2h38%62%
Goals29%71%
Total30.3%69.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Paredes

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.84 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.20 @ Pinnacle
Away2.34 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.70 @ Marathonbet
Under 2.51.53 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.36 @ 188Bet
No1.73 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): AD Marco 09 = 0.97 (league 1.25), Paredes = 1.75 (league 1.04)

Paredes
0 1 2 3 4 5
AD Marco 09 0 6.6% 11.5% 10.1% 5.9% 2.6% 0.9%
1 6.4% 11.2% 9.8% 5.7% 2.5% 0.9%
2 3.1% 5.4% 4.7% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4%
3 1.0% 1.8% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 20.8% · Draw 23.5% · Away win 54.7%

vtt 1 , vtd1