Liga 3 — Portugal
Sun, Mar 15 2026 • 15:00 • Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.44 (league 1.25) 0.43 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
62.2% 26.5% 10.9%
best score tips
1 - 0
22.1%
2 - 0
16.0%
0 - 0
15.3%
Score & goals probability table
AD Marco 09
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fafe 0 15.3% 6.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 22.1% 9.6% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 16.0% 6.9% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 7.7% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 2.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFafeAD Marco 09
Played55
Form53%27%
Attack44%25%
Defense63%44%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.29 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

60%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Fafe AD Marco 09
HATHAT
Played111122111122
Wins64%9%36%36%9%23%
Draws18%45%32%36%36%36%
Loses18%45%32%27%55%41%

Form: Fafe: LDDLDWWWLDWDLLWWLDWLWD • AD Marco 09: DDDWDDLDLLWDLWLLWLLLWD

League goals

Metric Fafe AD Marco 09
HATHAT
GF total17112812618
GF avg1.51.01.31.10.50.8
GA total101525151328
GA avg0.91.41.11.41.21.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFafeAD Marco 09
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%68%59%73%
1.536%27%23%41%
2.514%9%0%14%
3.55%5%0%0%
4.50%5%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFafeAD Marco 09
HATHAT
Clean sheets527246
Failed to score246369

Penalties

MetricFafeAD Marco 09
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total40

Streaks

MetricFafeAD Marco 09
Wins31
Draws23
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-42-10-1
Biggest losses0-25-10-32-0
Goals For3422
Goals Against2533

Model comparison

MetricFafeAD Marco 09
Form67%33%
Att64%36%
Def60%40%
Poisson Distribution76%24%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total61.2%38.8%

Advice: Double chance : Fafe or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.71 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.63 @ Pinnacle
Away5.11 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.12 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.70 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.07 @ 188Bet
No1.80 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Fafe = 1.44 (league 1.25), AD Marco 09 = 0.43 (league 1.04)

AD Marco 09
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fafe 0 15.3% 6.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 22.1% 9.6% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 16.0% 6.9% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 7.7% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 2.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 62.2% · Draw 26.5% · Away win 10.9%

vtt 1 , vtd1