Expected Goals
1.71 (league 1.23)
1.28 (league 1.03)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 46.8% | 23.7% | 28.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.0%
2 - 1
9.4%
1 - 0
8.6%
Score & goals probability table
| 1º Dezembro | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Atlético CP | 0 | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.4% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.2% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Atlético CP carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 110 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Atlético CP +9.4, 1º Dezembro +2.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Atlético CP
vs
1º Dezembro
Elo gapAtlético CP +110
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo2942
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2942
Elo home share
65%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Atlético CP | 1º Dezembro |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1508.6 | 1433.4 |
| Form Elo | 1514.5 | 1423.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1487.5 | 1479.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1493.1 | 1451.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1574.3 | 1452.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.4 | +2.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Atlético CP last-5 Elo change: +9.4; 1º Dezembro last-5 Elo change: +2.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Atlético CP | 1º Dezembro |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Attack | 43% | 57% |
| Defense | 71% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
68%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Atlético CP | 1º Dezembro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 38% | 46% | 42% | 15% | 23% | 19% |
| Draws | 8% | 23% | 15% | 46% | 23% | 35% |
| Loses | 54% | 31% | 42% | 38% | 54% | 46% |
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League goals
| Metric | Atlético CP | 1º Dezembro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 13 | 31 | 10 | 14 | 24 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 15 | 9 | 24 | 15 | 19 | 34 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Atlético CP | 1º Dezembro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 54% | 65% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 19% | 31% | 19% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 4% | 4% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 4% | 4% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Atlético CP | 1º Dezembro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Atlético CP | 1º Dezembro |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Atlético CP | 1º Dezembro |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-5 | 2-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 2-0 | 1-5 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Atlético CP | 1º Dezembro |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 58% | 42% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 80% | 20% |
| Total | 62.8% | 37.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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