Sat, May 2 2026 • 15:00 •
Campo Estrela
Expected Goals
0.74 (league 1.22)
0.68 (league 1.03)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 33.0% | 37.9% | 29.1% |
best score tips
0 - 0
24.1%
1 - 0
17.9%
0 - 1
16.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Atlético CP | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lusitano Évora 1911 | 0 | 24.1% | 16.4% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.7% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Lusitano Évora 1911 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 129 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lusitano Évora 1911 +31.8, Atlético CP -17.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Lusitano Évora 1911
vs
Atlético CP
Elo gapLusitano Évora 1911 +129
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo3081.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3081.4
Elo home share
68%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Lusitano Évora 1911 | Atlético CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1587.7 | 1493.7 |
| Form Elo | 1594 | 1490 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1562.6 | 1505.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1608.9 | 1480.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1607.7 | 1573.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +31.8 | -17.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Lusitano Évora 1911 last-5 Elo change: +31.8; Atlético CP last-5 Elo change: -17.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lusitano Évora 1911 | Atlético CP |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 40% |
| Attack | 100% | 56% |
| Defense | 56% | 44% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
56%
FT probability
2.5+
39%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lusitano Évora 1911 | Atlético CP | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 69% | 14% | 41% | 36% | 46% | 41% |
| Draws | 0% | 43% | 22% | 7% | 23% | 15% |
| Loses | 31% | 43% | 37% | 57% | 31% | 44% |
Lusitano Évora 1911LWLLDWLLWWDLLLWDWDLWDLWDWWW
Atlético CPLLWWLLWDLDLWWWLDDLWWLWWLLWL
League goals
| Metric | Lusitano Évora 1911 | Atlético CP | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 13 | 30 | 18 | 13 | 31 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 9 | 19 | 28 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lusitano Évora 1911 | Atlético CP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 81% | 74% | 56% |
| 1.5 | 26% | 15% | 19% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 7% | 11% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 0% | 7% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lusitano Évora 1911 | Atlético CP | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lusitano Évora 1911 | Atlético CP |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lusitano Évora 1911 | Atlético CP |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-3 | 4-0 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-4 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lusitano Évora 1911 | Atlético CP |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 68% | 32% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 53% | 47% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 8% | 92% |
| Total | 49.8% | 50.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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