Tue, Feb 17 2026 • 20:00 • Estádio da Luz
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.02 (league 1.78) 2.04 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
37.5% 20.5% 38.5%
best score tips
2 - 2
7.3%
1 - 2
7.3%
2 - 1
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
Real Madrid
0 1 2 3 4 5
Benfica 0 1.7% 3.5% 3.6% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5%
1 3.5% 7.1% 7.3% 4.9% 2.5% 1.0%
2 3.5% 7.2% 7.3% 5.0% 2.6% 1.0%
3 2.4% 4.8% 4.9% 3.4% 1.7% 0.7%
4 1.2% 2.4% 2.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4%
5 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBenficaReal Madrid
Played55
Form60%40%
Attack32%52%
Defense80%56%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.613 | 2.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 111 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

70%
FT probability

3.5+

50%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Benfica Real Madrid
HATHAT
Played6612448
Wins67%33%50%75%50%63%
Draws0%17%8%0%0%0%
Loses33%50%42%25%50%38%

Form: Benfica: WWDWLLLLWWLW • Real Madrid: WWWLWLWL

League goals

Metric Benfica Real Madrid
HATHAT
GF total11415101121
GF avg1.80.71.32.52.82.6
GA total66124812
GA avg1.01.01.01.02.01.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBenficaReal Madrid
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.558%50%88%75%
1.550%33%63%38%
2.58%17%38%25%
3.58%0%38%13%
4.50%0%25%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBenficaReal Madrid
HATHAT
Clean sheets336112
Failed to score145011

Penalties

MetricBenficaReal Madrid
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total13

Streaks

MetricBenficaReal Madrid
Wins23
Draws10
Losses41

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-20-26-10-5
Biggest losses2-33-01-24-2
Goals For4265
Goals Against3324

Model comparison

MetricBenficaReal Madrid
Form60%40%
Att38%62%
Def69%31%
Poisson Distribution48%52%
H2h100%0%
Goals67%33%
Total56.4%43.6%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Benfica or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.36 @ 1xBet
Draw3.81 @ Pinnacle
Away2.22 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.73 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.29 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.61 @ Pinnacle
No2.45 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Benfica = 2.02 (league 1.78), Real Madrid = 2.04 (league 1.37)

Real Madrid
0 1 2 3 4 5
Benfica 0 1.7% 3.5% 3.6% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5%
1 3.5% 7.1% 7.3% 4.9% 2.5% 1.0%
2 3.5% 7.2% 7.3% 5.0% 2.6% 1.0%
3 2.4% 4.8% 4.9% 3.4% 1.7% 0.7%
4 1.2% 2.4% 2.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4%
5 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.5% · Draw 20.5% · Away win 38.5%

vtt 9 , vtd1