Wed, Feb 18 2026 • 17:45 • Tofiq Bəhramov
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.73 (league 1.80) 2.48 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
25.8% 19.0% 50.3%
best score tips
1 - 2
7.9%
2 - 2
6.8%
1 - 3
6.5%
Score & goals probability table
Newcastle
0 1 2 3 4 5
Qarabag 0 1.5% 3.7% 4.6% 3.8% 2.3% 1.2%
1 2.6% 6.4% 7.9% 6.5% 4.0% 2.0%
2 2.2% 5.5% 6.8% 5.6% 3.5% 1.7%
3 1.3% 3.2% 3.9% 3.3% 2.0% 1.0%
4 0.6% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4%
5 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricQarabagNewcastle
Played55
Form27%53%
Attack39%50%
Defense11%72%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.49 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)16 | 3.25 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

72%
FT probability

3.5+

51%
FT probability

BTTS

80%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Qarabag Newcastle
HATHAT
Played7714448
Wins57%57%57%75%25%50%
Draws14%0%7%0%50%25%
Loses29%43%36%25%25%25%

Form: Qarabag: WWWWWLWWLDLLWL • Newcastle: LWWWLDWD

League goals

Metric Qarabag Newcastle
HATHAT
GF total1711289817
GF avg2.41.62.02.32.02.1
GA total121426257
GA avg1.72.01.90.51.30.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineQarabagNewcastle
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.586%71%100%50%
1.564%57%63%38%
2.536%29%38%0%
3.57%14%13%0%
4.57%7%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricQarabagNewcastle
HATHAT
Clean sheets224314
Failed to score022000

Penalties

MetricQarabagNewcastle
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total33

Streaks

MetricQarabagNewcastle
Wins53
Draws11
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-10-33-00-4
Biggest losses2-46-01-22-1
Goals For5334
Goals Against4622

Model comparison

MetricQarabagNewcastle
Form33%67%
Att44%56%
Def24%76%
Poisson Distribution38%62%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total34.8%65.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Newcastle and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home8.00 @ Unibet
Draw5.38 @ 1xBet
Away1.44 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.57 @ SBO
Under 2.52.88 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.70 @ Bet365
No2.31 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Qarabag = 1.73 (league 1.80), Newcastle = 2.48 (league 1.37)

Newcastle
0 1 2 3 4 5
Qarabag 0 1.5% 3.7% 4.6% 3.8% 2.3% 1.2%
1 2.6% 6.4% 7.9% 6.5% 4.0% 2.0%
2 2.2% 5.5% 6.8% 5.6% 3.5% 1.7%
3 1.3% 3.2% 3.9% 3.3% 2.0% 1.0%
4 0.6% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4%
5 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 25.8% · Draw 19.0% · Away win 50.3%

vtt 10 , vtd1