Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 14:00 •
Bobur Arena
Expected Goals
3.23 (league 1.39)
1.07 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 68.2% | 12.1% | 8.8% |
best score tips
3 - 1
8.2%
3 - 0
7.6%
2 - 1
7.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Dinamo Samarqand | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Andijan | 0 | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 4.4% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.1% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.6% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 6.1% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Dinamo Samarqand carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 53 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Andijan -9.6, Dinamo Samarqand -32.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Andijan
vs
Dinamo Samarqand
Elo gapDinamo Samarqand +53
Home / draw / away32% / 24% / 44%
Expected home share42%
Combined Elo2991.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2991.3
Elo home share
42%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Andijan | Dinamo Samarqand |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1451.8 | 1539.5 |
| Form Elo | 1451.3 | 1511.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1489.7 | 1529.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1435.7 | 1579.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1488.8 | 1513.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -9.6 | -32.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Andijan last-5 Elo change: -9.6; Dinamo Samarqand last-5 Elo change: -32.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Andijan | Dinamo Samarqand |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 27% |
| Attack | 27% | 53% |
| Defense | 67% | 27% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
88%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Andijan | Dinamo Samarqand | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Wins | 50% | 20% | 33% | 20% | 25% | 22% |
| Draws | 0% | 20% | 11% | 40% | 0% | 22% |
| Loses | 50% | 60% | 56% | 40% | 75% | 56% |
AndijanWLLWLLLDW
Dinamo SamarqandLWDLLWLLD
League goals
| Metric | Andijan | Dinamo Samarqand | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 3 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Andijan | Dinamo Samarqand | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 56% | 67% | 100% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 33% | 44% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 11% | 0% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Andijan | Dinamo Samarqand | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Andijan | Dinamo Samarqand |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Andijan | Dinamo Samarqand |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-3 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-0 | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Andijan | Dinamo Samarqand |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 69% | 31% |
| Poisson Distribution | 79% | 21% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 53.2% | 46.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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