Super League — Uzbekistan
Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 14:00 • Istiqlol Stadium
Not Started

Mash'al

—

Buxoro

Expected Goals
0.39 (league 1.39) 1.74 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
7.6% 21.3% 70.2%
best score tips
0 - 1
20.7%
0 - 2
18.1%
0 - 0
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
Buxoro
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mash'al 0 11.8% 20.6% 18.0% 10.5% 4.6% 1.6%
1 4.6% 8.0% 7.0% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6%
2 0.9% 1.6% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
3 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away strong edge

Buxoro carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 88 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Mash'al -34.3, Buxoro -16.1.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Mash'al Elo 1360.8 · -34.3
vs
Buxoro Elo 1483.7 · -16.1
Elo gapBuxoro +88
Home / draw / away30% / 20% / 50%
Expected home share38%
Combined Elo2844.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2844.5
Elo home share 38%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Mash'al Buxoro
Overall Elo1360.81483.7
Form Elo1326.11486.7
Home / Away Elo14421468.7
Attack Elo13241477.1
Defense Elo1414.21470.4
Last 5 Elo change-34.3-16.1

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Mash'al last-5 Elo change: -34.3; Buxoro last-5 Elo change: -16.1.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMash'alBuxoro
Played55
Form0%27%
Attack20%40%
Defense47%47%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.66 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.68 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

66%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Mash'al Buxoro
HATHAT
Played459549
Wins0%0%0%60%25%44%
Draws0%0%0%20%25%22%
Loses100%100%100%20%50%33%
Mash'alLLLLLLLLL
BuxoroWWDWLWDLL

League goals

Metric Mash'al Buxoro
HATHAT
GF total0337512
GF avg0.00.60.31.41.31.3
GA total611173710
GA avg1.52.21.90.61.81.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMash'alBuxoro
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.533%100%89%67%
1.50%78%33%22%
2.50%11%11%22%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMash'alBuxoro
HATHAT
Clean sheets000213
Failed to score426101

Penalties

MetricMash'alBuxoro
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricMash'alBuxoro
Wins02
Draws01
Losses91

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins——3-10-1
Biggest losses0-23-00-13-1
Goals For0132
Goals Against2313

Model comparison

MetricMash'alBuxoro
Form0%100%
Att33%67%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h71%29%
Goals67%33%
Total55.3%44.8%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.91 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.10 @ Bet365
Away2.06 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.08 @ Marathonbet
No1.73 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.51 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.57 @ Bet365
📊

League standings

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