Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 15:00 •
Pakhtakor Central Stadium
Expected Goals
1.58 (league 1.39)
1.40 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 41.3% | 24.3% | 33.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.2%
2 - 1
8.9%
1 - 0
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Nasaf | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Pakhtakor | 0 | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 6.4% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Pakhtakor carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 151 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Pakhtakor +42.1, Nasaf -14.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Pakhtakor
vs
Nasaf
Elo gapPakhtakor +151
Home / draw / away58% / 18% / 24%
Expected home share71%
Combined Elo3146.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3146.6
Elo home share
71%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Pakhtakor | Nasaf |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1631.5 | 1515.1 |
| Form Elo | 1658 | 1506.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1579.6 | 1510.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1633.8 | 1519.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1607 | 1502.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +42.1 | -14.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Pakhtakor last-5 Elo change: +42.1; Nasaf last-5 Elo change: -14.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Pakhtakor | Nasaf |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 33% |
| Attack | 73% | 40% |
| Defense | 73% | 53% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
78%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Pakhtakor | Nasaf | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Wins | 80% | 100% | 89% | 40% | 25% | 33% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20% | 50% | 33% |
| Loses | 20% | 0% | 11% | 40% | 25% | 33% |
PakhtakorWWLWWWWWW
NasafWWDLWDDLL
League goals
| Metric | Pakhtakor | Nasaf | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 11 | 8 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| GF avg | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 6 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Pakhtakor | Nasaf | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 89% | 67% | 89% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% | 22% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Pakhtakor | Nasaf | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Pakhtakor | Nasaf |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Pakhtakor | Nasaf |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 0 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-2 | 2-4 | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | — | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Pakhtakor | Nasaf |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 75% | 25% |
| Att | 65% | 35% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 59% | 41% |
| Total | 64.0% | 36.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.65 @ Betano
Draw3.66 @ 1xBet
Away5.41 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.93 @ BetVictor
No1.83 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.02 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.80 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
Loading standings…