Dinamo Samarqand vs Mash'al

Super League — Uzbekistan

Sat, May 2 2026 • 14:00 • Dinamo Samarkand Stadium

Not Started

home	draw	away
65.6%	18.7%	13.2%

		Mash'al
Dinamo Samarqand	0	4.7%	4.0%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
1	10.3%	8.8%	3.8%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%
2	11.4%	9.7%	4.2%	1.2%	0.3%	0.0%
3	8.4%	7.2%	3.1%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%
4	4.6%	4.0%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
5	2.0%	1.7%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

Home strong edge

Dinamo Samarqand carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 214 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Dinamo Samarqand -32.4, Mash'al -34.3.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone

Dinamo Samarqand Elo 1539.5 · -32.4

Mash'al Elo 1360.8 · -34.3

Elo gapDinamo Samarqand +214

Home / draw / away63% / 18% / 19%

Expected home share77%

Combined Elo2900.3

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Home strong edge

Confidence band Strong confidence

Upset risk Low

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 2900.3

Elo home share 77%

Match tone Heavy Favorite

Metric	Dinamo Samarqand	Mash'al
Overall Elo	1539.5	1360.8
Form Elo	1511.9	1326.1
Home / Away Elo	1524.9	1442.8
Attack Elo	1579.2	1324
Defense Elo	1513.7	1414.2
Last 5 Elo change	-32.4	-34.3

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Dinamo Samarqand last-5 Elo change: -32.4; Mash'al last-5 Elo change: -34.3.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Dinamo Samarqand	Mash'al
Played	5	5
Form	27%	0%
Attack	53%	20%
Defense	27%	47%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	8 \| 1.6	3 \| 0.6
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	11 \| 2.2	8 \| 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.90

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%

FT probability

2.5+

57%

FT probability

3.5+

41%

FT probability

BTTS

81%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Dinamo Samarqand			Mash'al
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	5	4	9	4	5	9
Wins	20%	25%	22%	0%	0%	0%
Draws	40%	0%	22%	0%	0%	0%
Loses	40%	75%	56%	100%	100%	100%

Dinamo SamarqandLWDLLWLLD

Mash'alLLLLLLLLL

League goals

Metric	Dinamo Samarqand			Mash'al
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	7	6	13	0	3	3
GF avg	1.4	1.5	1.4	0.0	0.6	0.3
GA total	8	10	18	6	11	17
GA avg	1.6	2.5	2.0	1.5	2.2	1.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Dinamo Samarqand		Mash'al
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	100%	100%	33%	100%
1.5	44%	67%	0%	78%
2.5	0%	22%	0%	11%
3.5	0%	11%	0%	0%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Dinamo Samarqand			Mash'al
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	0	0	0	0	0	0
Failed to score	0	0	0	4	2	6

Penalties

Metric	Dinamo Samarqand	Mash'al
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Streaks

Metric	Dinamo Samarqand	Mash'al
Wins	1	0
Draws	1	0
Losses	2	9

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	2-1	1-2	—	—
Biggest losses	1-2	4-2	0-2	3-0
Goals For	2	2	0	1
Goals Against	2	4	2	3

Model comparison

Metric	Dinamo Samarqand	Mash'al
Form	100%	0%
Att	73%	27%
Def	42%	58%
Poisson Distribution	76%	24%
H2h	50%	50%
Goals	55%	45%
Total	59.2%	40.8%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • Dinamo Samarqand vs Mash'al

Metric	Dinamo Samarqand	Mash'al
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Dinamo Samarqand vs Mash’al