Wed, Feb 18 2026 • 13:00 • Lugazi FC Stadium
Match Finished
1 - 0
Expected Goals
2.63 (league 1.36) 1.16 (league 0.86)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
63.7% 16.6% 14.5%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.1%
3 - 1
7.9%
2 - 0
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
UPDF
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lugazi 0 2.3% 2.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
1 5.9% 6.9% 4.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
2 7.8% 9.1% 5.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
3 6.9% 7.9% 4.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
4 4.5% 5.2% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
5 2.4% 2.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLugaziUPDF
Played55
Form33%7%
Attack60%20%
Defense20%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.61 | 0.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.88 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lugazi UPDF
HATHAT
Played79168816
Wins43%0%19%13%25%19%
Draws43%33%38%25%13%19%
Loses14%67%44%63%63%63%

Form: Lugazi: WLDDLWDLLDLLDWDL • UPDF: LWLLLWLLWDDLLLLD

League goals

Metric Lugazi UPDF
HATHAT
GF total122144812
GF avg1.70.20.90.51.00.8
GA total7142171724
GA avg1.01.61.30.92.11.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLugaziUPDF
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.544%69%56%69%
1.519%44%19%44%
2.513%13%0%19%
3.56%6%0%13%
4.56%0%0%6%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLugaziUPDF
HATHAT
Clean sheets235325
Failed to score279527

Penalties

MetricLugaziUPDF
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricLugaziUPDF
Wins11
Draws22
Losses24

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-2—2-00-1
Biggest losses1-24-01-25-1
Goals For5122
Goals Against2425

Model comparison

MetricLugaziUPDF
Form83%17%
Att75%25%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution69%31%
H2h13%88%
Goals29%71%
Total56.0%44.2%

Advice: Double chance : Lugazi or draw

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.91 @ William Hill
Draw3.50 @ Bet365
Away5.05 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.40 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.57 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.20 @ Marathonbet
No1.65 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Lugazi = 2.63 (league 1.36), UPDF = 1.16 (league 0.86)

UPDF
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lugazi 0 2.3% 2.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
1 5.9% 6.9% 4.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
2 7.8% 9.1% 5.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
3 6.9% 7.9% 4.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
4 4.5% 5.2% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
5 2.4% 2.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 63.7% · Draw 16.6% · Away win 14.5%

vtt 1 , vtd1