Premier League
— Uganda
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.31 (league 1.31)
1.05 (league 0.84)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 10.7% | 34.7% | 54.5% |
best score tips
0 - 1
27.1%
0 - 0
25.8%
0 - 2
14.2%
Score & goals probability table
| KCCA | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Calvary | 0 | 25.8% | 27.1% | 14.2% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 7.9% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
KCCA carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 194 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Calvary +5.5, KCCA +26.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Calvary
vs
KCCA
Elo gapKCCA +194
Home / draw / away21% / 18% / 61%
Expected home share25%
Combined Elo3015.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3015.5
Elo home share
25%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Calvary | KCCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1393.3 | 1622.2 |
| Form Elo | 1389.3 | 1639.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1465 | 1523.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1367.7 | 1632.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1476.1 | 1623.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.5 | +26.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Calvary last-5 Elo change: +5.5; KCCA last-5 Elo change: +26.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Calvary | KCCA |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 80% |
| Attack | 25% | 100% |
| Defense | 75% | 88% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 1 | 0.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
52%
FT probability
2.5+
37%
FT probability
3.5+
26%
FT probability
BTTS
51%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Calvary | KCCA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 12 | 23 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Wins | 9% | 0% | 4% | 83% | 50% | 67% |
| Draws | 45% | 17% | 30% | 8% | 17% | 13% |
| Loses | 45% | 83% | 65% | 8% | 33% | 21% |
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League goals
| Metric | Calvary | KCCA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 13 | 36 |
| GF avg | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 9 | 24 | 33 | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Calvary | KCCA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 26% | 70% | 75% | 58% |
| 1.5 | 13% | 30% | 50% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 22% | 17% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 17% | 8% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Calvary | KCCA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 8 | 9 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Calvary | KCCA |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Calvary | KCCA |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 5 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | — | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 5-1 | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Calvary | KCCA |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 29% | 71% |
| Att | 20% | 80% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 22% | 78% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 27.4% | 72.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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