Premier League — Uganda
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 17:00 • FUFA Kadiba Stadium
Not Started

SC Villa

—

Buhimba Saints

Expected Goals
3.64 (league 1.31) 0.29 (league 0.84)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
78.2% 4.6% 1.0%
best score tips
3 - 0
15.9%
4 - 0
14.4%
2 - 0
13.1%
Score & goals probability table
Buhimba Saints
0 1 2 3 4 5
SC Villa 0 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 7.1% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 13.0% 3.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 15.8% 4.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 14.4% 4.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 10.5% 3.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

SC Villa carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 252 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: SC Villa +18.5, Buhimba Saints -29.6.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
SC Villa Elo 1609.3 · +18.5
vs
Buhimba Saints Elo 1392.4 · -29.6
Elo gapSC Villa +252
Home / draw / away66% / 18% / 16%
Expected home share81%
Combined Elo3001.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3001.7
Elo home share 81%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric SC Villa Buhimba Saints
Overall Elo1609.31392.4
Form Elo1620.21369.3
Home / Away Elo1550.81442.3
Attack Elo1538.51391.2
Defense Elo1655.21366.7
Last 5 Elo change+18.5-29.6

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. SC Villa last-5 Elo change: +18.5; Buhimba Saints last-5 Elo change: -29.6.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSC VillaBuhimba Saints
Played55
Form67%0%
Attack63%13%
Defense75%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 11 | 0.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.411 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

72%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

59%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

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Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric SC Villa Buhimba Saints
HATHAT
Played121123121224
Wins67%45%57%25%8%17%
Draws33%18%26%17%8%13%
Loses0%36%17%58%83%71%
SC VillaLDWWWWWDLWWWLWDDWDLWWDW
Buhimba SaintsWWWLLLLLLDLWLLLDDLLLLLLL

League goals

Metric SC Villa Buhimba Saints
HATHAT
GF total2011319716
GF avg1.71.01.30.80.60.7
GA total5712163450
GA avg0.40.60.51.32.82.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSC VillaBuhimba Saints
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.578%43%46%79%
1.530%9%17%58%
2.513%0%4%33%
3.54%0%0%21%
4.54%0%0%8%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSC VillaBuhimba Saints
HATHAT
Clean sheets7613325
Failed to score2355813

Penalties

MetricSC VillaBuhimba Saints
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricSC VillaBuhimba Saints
Wins53
Draws22
Losses16

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-10-32-00-1
Biggest losses—2-10-37-3
Goals For6323
Goals Against1237

Model comparison

MetricSC VillaBuhimba Saints
Form100%0%
Att83%17%
Def85%15%
Poisson Distribution93%7%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total87.0%13.0%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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