Premier League
— Uganda
Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 17:00 •
MTN Omondi Stadium
Expected Goals
0.73 (league 1.31)
1.34 (league 0.84)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 20.3% | 28.4% | 51.1% |
best score tips
0 - 1
17.0%
0 - 0
12.7%
1 - 1
12.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Vipers | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| KCCA | 0 | 12.4% | 16.8% | 11.4% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 12.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
KCCA carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 25 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: KCCA +26.1, Vipers +15.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
KCCA
vs
Vipers
Elo gapKCCA +25
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo3254.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3254.5
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | KCCA | Vipers |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1622.2 | 1632.3 |
| Form Elo | 1639.1 | 1647.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1578 | 1544.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1632.1 | 1604.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1623.6 | 1628.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +26.1 | +15.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. KCCA last-5 Elo change: +26.1; Vipers last-5 Elo change: +15.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | KCCA | Vipers |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 73% |
| Attack | 100% | 75% |
| Defense | 88% | 75% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
68%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | KCCA | Vipers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 12 | 24 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Wins | 83% | 50% | 67% | 75% | 64% | 70% |
| Draws | 8% | 17% | 13% | 25% | 36% | 30% |
| Loses | 8% | 33% | 21% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
KCCADWDWWLWWWWWLDWLLWWWWWLWW
VipersWWWWDWDDWWWWWWDDWWWWDDW
League goals
| Metric | KCCA | Vipers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 13 | 36 | 27 | 18 | 45 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 8 | 10 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | KCCA | Vipers | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 58% | 91% | 52% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 13% | 57% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 4% | 30% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 0% | 13% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | KCCA | Vipers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | KCCA | Vipers |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | KCCA | Vipers |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 6 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | 5-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-1 | — | — |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | KCCA | Vipers |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 52% | 48% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 38% | 62% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 52.3% | 47.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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