J2/J3 League
— Japan
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 10:00 •
Okinawa Athletic Park Stadium
Expected Goals
0.85 (league 1.32)
1.50 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 21.3% | 26.2% | 52.1% |
best score tips
0 - 1
14.3%
1 - 1
12.2%
0 - 2
10.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Oita Trinita | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| FC Ryukyu | 0 | 9.5% | 14.3% | 10.7% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 8.1% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 3.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Oita Trinita carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 40 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: FC Ryukyu -23.6, Oita Trinita -3.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
FC Ryukyu
vs
Oita Trinita
Elo gapOita Trinita +40
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo2848.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2848.4
Elo home share
44%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | FC Ryukyu | Oita Trinita |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1386.5 | 1461.9 |
| Form Elo | 1369.7 | 1464.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1454 | 1470.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1395 | 1425.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1412.1 | 1530 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -23.6 | -3.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. FC Ryukyu last-5 Elo change: -23.6; Oita Trinita last-5 Elo change: -3.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | FC Ryukyu | Oita Trinita |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 40% |
| Attack | 31% | 62% |
| Defense | 38% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | FC Ryukyu | Oita Trinita | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Wins | 33% | 20% | 27% | 67% | 40% | 55% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 67% | 80% | 73% | 33% | 60% | 45% |
FC RyukyuWLWLLLWLLLL
Oita TrinitaWWWLWLLLWLW
League goals
| Metric | FC Ryukyu | Oita Trinita | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 16 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 9 | 9 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | FC Ryukyu | Oita Trinita | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 55% | 91% | 91% | 45% |
| 1.5 | 18% | 64% | 45% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 9% | 9% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | FC Ryukyu | Oita Trinita | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | FC Ryukyu | Oita Trinita |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | FC Ryukyu | Oita Trinita |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 2-3 | 2-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-1 | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | FC Ryukyu | Oita Trinita |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 37% | 63% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 45.7% | 54.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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