J2/J3 League
— Japan
Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 05:00 •
NACK5 Stadium Omiya
Expected Goals
1.23 (league 1.31)
0.81 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 45.9% | 29.5% | 24.4% |
best score tips
1 - 0
16.0%
1 - 1
13.0%
0 - 0
12.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Ventforet Kofu | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Omiya Ardija | 0 | 12.9% | 10.5% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Omiya Ardija carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 75 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Omiya Ardija -29.8, Ventforet Kofu +9.7.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Omiya Ardija
vs
Ventforet Kofu
Elo gapOmiya Ardija +75
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo2996.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2996.8
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Omiya Ardija | Ventforet Kofu |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1518.3 | 1478.5 |
| Form Elo | 1509 | 1482.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1507.7 | 1497.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1645.1 | 1412.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1509.6 | 1561.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -29.8 | +9.7 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Omiya Ardija last-5 Elo change: -29.8; Ventforet Kofu last-5 Elo change: +9.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Omiya Ardija | Ventforet Kofu |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Attack | 89% | 56% |
| Defense | 0% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Omiya Ardija | Ventforet Kofu | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
| Wins | 67% | 50% | 58% | 71% | 60% | 67% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 33% | 50% | 42% | 29% | 40% | 33% |
Omiya ArdijaWWWWLLWLWLLW
Ventforet KofuWWWWWLLWLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Omiya Ardija | Ventforet Kofu | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 11 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 15 |
| GF avg | 2.7 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 7 | 11 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Omiya Ardija | Ventforet Kofu | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 83% | 67% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 58% | 50% | 42% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 8% | 8% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 8% | 8% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Omiya Ardija | Ventforet Kofu | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Omiya Ardija | Ventforet Kofu |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Omiya Ardija | Ventforet Kofu |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-0 | 1-4 | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Omiya Ardija | Ventforet Kofu |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 62% | 38% |
| Def | 31% | 69% |
| Poisson Distribution | 60% | 40% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 23% | 77% |
| Total | 39.3% | 60.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.80 @ Betano
Draw3.65 @ Unibet
Away4.80 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.92 @ SBO
Under 2.51.90 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.83 @ Bet365
No1.95 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
Loading standings…