Sat, May 2 2026 • 14:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.32 (league 1.86)
1.12 (league 1.52)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 61.0% | 18.8% | 17.0% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.7%
2 - 0
8.6%
1 - 1
8.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Dorostol | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ustrem Donchevo | 0 | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.6% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.7% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Ustrem Donchevo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 125 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ustrem Donchevo -30.9, Dorostol -36.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Ustrem Donchevo
vs
Dorostol
Elo gapUstrem Donchevo +125
Home / draw / away55% / 18% / 27%
Expected home share67%
Combined Elo2866
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2866
Elo home share
67%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Ustrem Donchevo | Dorostol |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1477.9 | 1388.1 |
| Form Elo | 1464.3 | 1350.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1498.3 | 1482 |
| Attack Elo | 1586.4 | 1364.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1311.2 | 1406.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -30.9 | -36.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Ustrem Donchevo last-5 Elo change: -30.9; Dorostol last-5 Elo change: -36.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ustrem Donchevo | Dorostol |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 7% |
| Attack | 33% | 11% |
| Defense | 22% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
70%
FT probability
3.5+
50%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ustrem Donchevo | Dorostol | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 54% | 38% | 46% | 29% | 23% | 26% |
| Draws | 15% | 8% | 12% | 7% | 23% | 15% |
| Loses | 31% | 54% | 42% | 64% | 54% | 59% |
Ustrem DonchevoWLWWLWLWLLLWWWDWWLLWDLDWLL
DorostolLWWLWWLDWLWDDLWLLLLLLLLLLDL
League goals
| Metric | Ustrem Donchevo | Dorostol | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 31 | 26 | 57 | 11 | 12 | 23 |
| GF avg | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 25 | 33 | 58 | 23 | 24 | 47 |
| GA avg | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ustrem Donchevo | Dorostol | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 85% | 85% | 48% | 74% |
| 1.5 | 54% | 54% | 26% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 35% | 7% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 23% | 4% | 11% |
| 4.5 | 12% | 12% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ustrem Donchevo | Dorostol | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ustrem Donchevo | Dorostol |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ustrem Donchevo | Dorostol |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 10 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-5 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-6 | 8-0 | 0-4 | 6-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ustrem Donchevo | Dorostol |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 80% | 20% |
| Att | 75% | 25% |
| Def | 39% | 61% |
| Poisson Distribution | 64% | 36% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 46% | 54% |
| Total | 59.0% | 41.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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