Sat, May 2 2026 • 11:00 •
Kalevan Urheilupuisto
Expected Goals
0.50 (league 1.99)
1.35 (league 1.48)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 13.8% | 28.3% | 57.6% |
best score tips
0 - 1
21.2%
0 - 0
15.7%
0 - 2
14.3%
Score & goals probability table
| SalPa | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| PKKU | 0 | 15.7% | 21.2% | 14.3% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.9% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
PKKU carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 97 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: PKKU -7.1, SalPa +9.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
PKKU
vs
SalPa
Elo gapPKKU +97
Home / draw / away52% / 19% / 29%
Expected home share64%
Combined Elo2914.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2914.6
Elo home share
64%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | PKKU | SalPa |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1488.2 | 1426.4 |
| Form Elo | 1475.5 | 1431.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1485.2 | 1458.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1568.7 | 1447.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1399.9 | 1448.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -7.1 | +9.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. PKKU last-5 Elo change: -7.1; SalPa last-5 Elo change: +9.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | PKKU | SalPa |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 33% | 42% |
| Attack | 35% | 30% |
| Defense | 65% | 75% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.8 | 6 | 1.5 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.8 | 5 | 1.3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | PKKU | SalPa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Wins | 0% | 50% | 25% | 33% | 0% | 25% |
| Draws | 50% | 0% | 25% | 33% | 100% | 50% |
| Loses | 50% | 50% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 25% |
PKKUDWLL
SalPaDWDL
League goals
| Metric | PKKU | SalPa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | PKKU | SalPa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 50% | 100% | 100% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 75% | 50% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | PKKU | SalPa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | PKKU | SalPa |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | PKKU | SalPa |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 1-5 | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-0 | 2-3 | — |
| Goals For | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | PKKU | SalPa |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 54% | 46% |
| Def | 42% | 58% |
| Poisson Distribution | 30% | 70% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 42.5% | 57.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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