Sat, May 2 2026 • 13:00 •
Kokkolan keskuskentta
Expected Goals
0.38 (league 1.99)
3.37 (league 1.48)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.9% | 6.5% | 79.1% |
best score tips
0 - 3
15.0%
0 - 2
13.4%
0 - 4
12.7%
Score & goals probability table
| OLS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| KPV-j | 0 | 2.4% | 8.0% | 13.4% | 15.0% | 12.7% | 8.5% |
| 1 | 0.9% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
OLS carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 57 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: KPV-j -22.1, OLS +29.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
KPV-j
vs
OLS
Elo gapOLS +57
Home / draw / away32% / 23% / 45%
Expected home share42%
Combined Elo3073.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3073.5
Elo home share
42%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | KPV-j | OLS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1490.6 | 1582.9 |
| Form Elo | 1459.3 | 1613.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1532.4 | 1536.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1577.9 | 1747.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1348.8 | 1536.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -22.1 | +29.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. KPV-j last-5 Elo change: -22.1; OLS last-5 Elo change: +29.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | KPV-j | OLS |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 17% | 83% |
| Attack | 10% | 40% |
| Defense | 45% | 85% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.5 | 8 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.8 | 3 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | KPV-j | OLS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 50% | 75% |
| Draws | 0% | 67% | 50% | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| Loses | 100% | 33% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
KPV-jDDLL
OLSWWDW
League goals
| Metric | KPV-j | OLS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| GF avg | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 2 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | KPV-j | OLS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 25% | 75% | 100% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 75% | 50% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 25% | 25% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 25% | 25% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 25% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | KPV-j | OLS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | KPV-j | OLS |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | KPV-j | OLS |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | 2-0 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 7-0 | — | — |
| Goals For | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | KPV-j | OLS |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 17% | 83% |
| Att | 20% | 80% |
| Def | 21% | 79% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 100% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 47% | 53% |
| Total | 28.6% | 71.4% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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